Editors: Ilan Berman and Calla O'Neil
THE GROWING THREAT OF SYRIA'S ISLAMIC STATE
The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 has ushered in a new political era for Syria, marked by the potential for economic prosperity and regional reintegration. However, the transitional government faces a significant challenge from the Islamic State (IS), which views the new Syrian order as an existential threat, writes Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute. Following Assad's ouster, he notes, IS activity appeared to decline sharply, dropping from over 3,000 attacks in 2024 to just 96 reported incidents so far this year. However, this drop "was primarily the result of the group losing its longtime safe-haven in Syria's central desert, where Assad regime forces had proved to be unwilling and unable to challenge its desert-based insurgency" – and which had become the target of airstrikes upon Assad's fall.
Things today are very different, Lister notes. As relations between Damascus and Washington have begun to normalize, highlighted by the removal of U.S. sanctions on Syria, the Islamic State has come back to life and launched a campaign to delegitimize the new Syrian leadership. The group has carried out a number of deadly attacks against Syrian government security forces in actions "clearly aimed at crippling the fragile popular confidence in Syria's transitional government." The group has also denounced new President Ahmed al-Sharaa as an "apostate" for acquiescing to American interests – to the point where it posits that al-Sharaa, himself a onetime jihadist, is now "at war with jihad."
The stakes are high. "Ultimately, the most potent threat to the Islamic State is posed by the prospect of Syria's post-Assad transition succeeding — in stabilizing the country, consolidating its rule, managing an economic revival, exerting a monopoly over the use of force, and broadening in representation of Syria's rich diversity," Lister writes. "After all, defeating the likes of the Islamic State is as much — if not more — a battle of ideas and a fight between a narrative of peace, hope, and national unity against one of division, hatred, and violence." (Foreign Policy, June 5, 2025)
THE EXPANDING HOUTHI FOOTPRINT
In recent years, the Houthis – the Iranian-supported rebel movement that has come to dominate large swathes of Yemen – has steadily become the subject of international attention and concern. In the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 terror attacks by Hamas on Israel, the group launched a campaign of sporadic attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea, wreaking havoc on sea-borne commerce and causing significant global disruptions. Those attacks have abated somewhat in the wake of a May deal with the Trump administration, under which the Houthis agreed to roll back their targeting of American vessels. Nevertheless, the overall menace posed by the group remains.
The group isn't just a threat to global shipping, however. A new study by the National Defense University's Africa Center for Strategic Studies highlights how the Houthis are increasingly playing an active role not just in the southern Gulf, but on the African continent as well. Namely, it notes, there is now "[e]vidence of growing collaboration between al Shabaab in Somalia and Yemen's Houthis," a dynamic that "is heightening risks to maritime traffic in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Western Indian Ocean while strengthening the disruptive capacity of both groups."
The lash-up, the Africa Center report explains, is logical. "Al Shabaab gains improved materiel (weaponized drones, ballistic missiles) and training from this relationship," while also further expanding its criminal enterprises. "The Houthis benefit from Al Shabaab's support of disruptive piracy activity in the Gulf of Aden and Western Indian Ocean as well as from more diversified supply arteries. This strengthens the Houthis' ability to threaten maritime traffic in the region while deepening their leverage vis-à-vis the United Nations-backed government in Yemen." (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, May 28, 2025)
ANOTHER STEP FORWARD FOR THE TALIBAN
In a move that further strengthens its growing diplomatic ties with Kabul, Russia has formally accepted the Taliban's nomination for ambassador to Moscow. The decision follows Russia's April rollback of its prior ban on the Taliban, under which the Islamist movement had been designated as a terror group under Russian law. Though no country has yet formally recognized Afghanistan's Taliban-led government, a number of nations – including Uzbekistan and China – have inched in that direction, and Moscow's acceptance of the diplomatic credentials may signal a step toward future full recognition of the group on the Kremlin's part. (Reuters, June 1, 2025)
