Global Islamism Monitor No. 140

IN MALI, A RUSSIAN FAILURE... AND AN ISLAMIST ADVANCE
Late last month, JNIM, the al-Qaeda affiliate operating across the Sahel, launched its most significant offensive in over a decade, imposing a siege on Mali's capital of Bamako, striking the country's international airport, seizing its northern city of Kidal, and killing the Malian defense minister. Russian paramilitary forces, brought in by the Malian juntai back in 2022 to suppress the country's ongoing Islamist insurgency, were routed from Kidal and lost armored vehicles and an attack helicopter to advancing militants. A separate Islamic State affiliate also captured a village from Russian forces near Mali's frontier with Niger.

The offensive, analysts say, could be a potential turning point. JNIM already controls a vast swath of territory across Mali and the broader Sahel region, and has publicly declared its ambition to replicate the Taliban's path back to power in Afghanistan, waiting out the existing government until it collapses from within. The group finances itself through drug trafficking, extortion, kidnappings for ransom, and fuel interdiction, and recently received a reported $20 million ransom payment, as well as the release of a number of imprisoned militants, in exchange a kidnapped Gulf royal.

Meanwhile, Russia's failure to stabilize Mali adds to a broader pattern of setbacks for the Kremlin across Africa and the Middle East. Moscow has also lost grand in recent months in Libya, and its status in post-Assad Syria remains uncertain. But Western governments, having withdrawn their military and intelligence presence from the region over the past several years, now find themselves with little capacity to influence events on the ground. If JNIM succeeds in taking Bamako, Mali would become the first country in history governed by an al-Qaeda affiliated organization. (Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2026)

ALL EYES ON HAMAS IN EUROPE
Hamas may be embattled in the Gaza Strip, but the Palestinian Islamist movement is still carrying out a range of activities on the European continent. Dutch intelligence (AIVD) recently identified a Hamas-linked network operating in the Netherlands that has been coordinating protests, conducting advocacy work, and collecting funds on the organization's behalf for years. The network, Dutch authorities say, forms part of a wider European Hamas structure.

The AIVD report also flags the broader threat posed by extremist cells targeting Jewish and Israeli interests across Europe, pointing to a series of arrests in Germany, Denmark, the UK, and Austria connected to Hamas-linked plots on the continent. Iranian state actors are identified as a persistent threat as well, with Dutch intelligence warning of Tehran's ongoing cyber, espionage, and influence operations directed at European targets. (Jerusalem Post, April 27, 2026)

AFGHANISTAN'S WOMEN FACE A BLEAK FUTURE
The United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund, or UNICEF, is raising the alarm over the ongoing deterioration of education in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. UNICEF warns that the country stands to lose more than 25,000 female teachers and healthcare workers by 2030 if Taliban restrictions on the schooling of girls and women's employment remain in place. The Taliban has barred women from most government jobs and limited girls' access to formal education to age 12 or below since returning to power in 2021.

The consequences are already materializing. At least one million girls have been affected to date, and that number projected to double within four years. The shrinking pipeline of qualified women entering essential professions carries particular significance in Afghanistan, where cultural norms require female patients to be seen by female medical staff and where gender-segregated schools depend on female instructors. Beyond the human cost, UNICEF estimates the economic toll of the measures at roughly $84 million annually, equivalent to around half a percent of the country's GDP. (Reuters, April 28, 2026)