Information Warfare Watch No. 36

A SURGE OF DISINFO IN SOUTH ASIA
In the wake of the July 13th assassination attempt on former President (and current Republican nominee) Donald Trump, South Asia has seen a massive uptick in misinformation and conspiracy theories. While this surge reflects the region's long-standing susceptibility to sensationalist narratives, it has also echoed current geopolitical rivalries and local tensions. Thus, one now-suspended social media account based in Pakistan falsely attributed the assassination attempt to India's intelligence service, while in Afghanistan, a video posted by what appeared to be members of an anti-Taliban group claimed responsibility for the shooting in a message that was quickly debunked as Taliban propaganda. On Turkish social media, meanwhile, murky news sources attempted to tie the shooting to the Antifa movement in the U.S. and to the Kurdish rebel YPG militia. 

The phenomenon is far from unique. "The truth is that we see this happening everywhere in the world simultaneously about every breaking event that happens," says Imran Ahmed of the Center for Countering Digital Hate. "In the pandemic, everyone weaponized that to say X was behind it or Y was behind it. But what was always true was the person that they were saying was behind it was someone that they disliked anyway." Nevertheless, experts note, the unique characteristics of the South Asian media environment – which is defined by extensive connectivity but low rates of media literacy among local populations – make its inhabitants particularly susceptible to disinformation and the weaponization of narratives. (VOA News, July 20, 2024)

AI DEEPFAKES STILL A FUTURE PROBLEM – FOR NOW
America’s current, tumultuous political cycle has led to dire warnings about how politics will be fundamentally manipulated, and the public misled, through the proliferation of "deepfakes" – fabricated videos portraying false statements or actions by public figures – driven by the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI). That, however, hasn't happened – at least not yet. The reason is at least partially attributable to the prompt fact checks issued by leading news organizations surrounding current events (such as the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump). These and ancillary efforts by verification websites have helped debunk mischaracterizations, doctored photos, and other forms of fake news. 

The resulting threat may have been mitigated for now, but the potential for AI-driven disinformation is still rising. In particular, Axios notes, although "AI-generated deep fakes have become easier for news outlets and fact-checkers to debunk in real-time, customized responses to AI chatbots about breaking news are much harder to police." (Axios, July 22, 2024) 

FINALLY, MOSCOW TAKES AIM AT YOUTUBE
Since the start of its war on Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has moved assertively to limit access to information on the part of Russian citizens, banning platforms like Facebook and Instagram in an attempt to control the media narrative surrounding the conflict. One platform, however, has so far largely escaped official censure. YouTube, the wildly popular video sharing service owned by Google, is the last major Western social media platform still accessible in the country. But that now appears to be changing. ROSTELECOM, the country's official telecoms operator, has warned publicly that YouTube users will begin to experience slower speeds and video-quality issues. And while the Kremlin has officially denied plans to block the video streaming platform outright, such a move represents a logical "next step," one pro-Kremlin politician has confirmed. Indeed, the step appears increasingly likely as the Russian government expands its censorship efforts, since YouTube is used extensively by anti-regime activists to publicize Kremlin corruption and human rights abuses. (Times of London, July 14, 2024)

RUSSIA'S REVAMPED DISINFORMATION STRATEGY
A new expose by The Insider, a leading opposition news outlet, carried out in collaboration with Germany's Der Spiegel, has shed new light on the Kremlin's updated information warfare strategy against the West – and on the principles underpinning it. Relying on leaked correspondence from Russia's foreign intelligence agency, the SVR, the report details how the Kremlin has been optimizing its efforts to exploit new internet platforms, target émigré communities and discredit its adversaries. The Russian initiative, dubbed "Project Kylo" and designed to avoid attribution to Russian intelligence services, is the apparent brainchild of former FSB officer Mikhail Kolesov. Kolesov's contention was that the Kremlin's information warfare efforts were being hampered by reliance on "old" state-controlled organs like RT and Sputnik, which had lost their effectiveness and persuasive potential, and by Russian efforts to "cultivate friendly social media platforms."

Instead, Kolesov proposed a new strategy designed to be "systematic, targeted and active [and] offensive in nature." At its core was the contention that Russia's government should work to "deepen internal contradictions between the ruling elites" of the West through a variety of means – including the creation of fake NGOs to spur anti-government demonstrations, fake advertisements to saturate internet websites, and even to advocate so stridently on behalf of Ukrainian refugees in foreign locales as to cause a backlash. Kolesov's brainchild, developed between 2022 and 2023, is believed to have been put into practice since, most notably through the targeting of the reputations of opposition figures deemed to be "enemies" of the Kremlin, and by actions designed to deepen societal tensions and religious divisions surrounding the French government's support for Ukraine. (The Insider, July 4, 2024)