Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 129

ECONOMIC NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION
In recent months, as Western sanctions against the Islamic Republic have expanded, the Iranian regime has resorted to increasingly creative methods to maintain its energy exports to the world. Since July, for example, Iranian exports of fuel oil have shot up – even as European sanctions have put a crimp in the regime’s crude sales. The rising volume of fuel oil sales is estimated to have netted Tehran revenue equal to one-third of that typically generated by crude oil exports. (Reuters, December 19, 2012)

A BRAVE FACE FROM TEHRAN... FOR NOW
Iranian officials are attempting to reassure their skittish citizenry about the country’s economic situation. Iran’s economic minister, Shamseddin Hosseini, has admitted that the country’s oil revenues “have dropped by 50 percent” this year because of international sanctions. But, Hosseini maintains, the situation is not critical in the near term. "By managing our resources and revenues, there will be no problem in paying salaries until the end of this [Iranian calendar] year [in March 2013]," he recently told the Iranian economic daily Donya e-Eqtesad.

Farther into the future, however, Iran’s fiscal fortunes are a good deal less certain. The Islamic Republic is in “dire economic conditions” as a result of Western pressure, according to Hojjat al-Islam Jalal Yahyazadeh, a member of the majles Economics Committee. Yahyazadeh has projected that the international sanctions regime against Iran could last another four years – with ruinous effects on the nation’s economy. (Reuters, December 19, 2012; Tehran ICANA, December 19, 2012)

IRAN’S NAVAL AMBITIONS
The Iranian regime may face an increasingly bleak economic future, but that has not blunted its global ambitions. Iranian military planners are reportedly working on a strategy that would allow the country to strengthen and project its naval capabilities further afield – potentially, into the Atlantic. “In order to protect the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran and establish security for our country’s trade vessels and oil tankers in free and international waters," Iranian Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari recently told Iran’s PressTV channel, “We are ready to extend our presence in these areas and even in the Atlantic Ocean.” (The Hill, December 17, 2012)

A HOME-GROWN YOUTUBE
As part of its efforts to better harness social media and Internet technologies, the Iranian government has launched a new online media hub. Known as “Mehr,” the video-sharing site is designed as part of the Iranian regime’s planned “national internet,” and can be used to upload and promulgate regime-approved videos. The Iranian regime has blocked YouTube, the popular web video-sharing site, since 2009, and “Mehr” (which is administered by the regime’s official Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB)) is clearly designed as a government-sanctioned and monitored substitute. "From now on, people can upload their short films on the website and access (IRIB) produced material," one official involved with the project has confirmed. (PC Magazine, December 9, 2012)

MORE CYBERWAR AGAINST THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
Iran’s nuclear program appears to have been hit by yet another cyber attack. According to the country's Information Technology Organization, an “efficient” new virus that deletes select files has been detected at the Bushehr nuclear plant in southern Iran. According to computer website Ars Technica, the virus—which has been dubbed “Batchwiper”—is similar to previous cyberworms that have targeted the Iranian nuclear program. As of yet, however, it appears localized to the Bushehr plant, and “is not considered to be widely distributed,” Iranian authorities have said. (Washington Free Beacon, December 17, 2012)