Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 133

FLASHPOINT: IRAN’S AZERIS
Ever since parts of modern-day Azerbaijan were acquired from Russia in the 1800s, Iran has struggled to manage its growing, and politically aware, ethnic Azeri population. But recent weeks have seen the Iranian regime's relations with the country's largest ethnic minority go from bad to worse. The cause was the convening in late March in Baku, Azerbaijan of a conference by the "South Azerbaijan National Liberation Front," an umbrella group of Iranian Azeris and expatriates seeking independence for their part of Iran. The event drew the ire of the Iranian regime, and precipitated a number of political responses. In early April, Mansour Haqiqatpour, chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, publicly called for a referendum on the feasibility of absorbing Azerbaijan. Days later, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, wrote an editorial calling for an Iranian intervention to "save" that country's Azeris. And Iran's parliament has even begun drafting a bill to re-annex the neighboring Republic of Azerbaijan.

Iran's security officials, meanwhile, are taking no chances. According to Abedin Khorram, a commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, the clerical army’s Shuhada Corps will be conducting snap military exercises in Iran’s West Azerbaijan Province over the next several days in a not-so-subtle warning that Tehran stands ready to use force against any outbreak of ethnic unrest in the region. (Bloomberg, April 1, 2013; Iran Daily Brief, April 5, 2013; Iran Daily Brief, April 8, 2013; Tehran FARS, April 9, 2013; Iran Daily Brief, April 25, 2013)

ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, AND FOOD INSECURITY, IN IRAN
Domestic fiscal mismanagement, and widening Western sanctions over the Iranian regime's nuclear program, are continuing to wreak havoc on the country's economic well-being. The latest casualty is food security, with national supermarkets experiencing runs on staple goods as worried Iranians stock up on commodities such as red meat and cooking oil. The stockpiling of goods is driven by the belief that commodity prices will increase in the near future. Indeed, the prices of staple goods are expected to rise by as much as 60 percent in coming weeks as a result of a change in the official exchange rate of the Iranian rial, which will constrict its purchasing power. (New York Times, April 23, 2013)

NUMBER OF PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS CONTINUES TO GROW
With Iran’s presidential elections now just a month-and-a-half away, the political hopefuls are coming out of the woodwork. In recent days, two more presidential aspirants have formally announced their intentions to throw their hats into the political ring. The first is Ruhollah Ahmadzadeh-Kermani, a former Vice President in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government who served as head of Iran’s Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organization in 2011. The second is Akbar A’lami, a “reformist” politician who previously represented Tabriz, Azazshahr and Oskou in the Iranian legislature, or majles.

The total number of candidates who will compete in the presidential poll, which will take place on June 14th, now officially stands at more than a dozen. The list includes: Ahmadzadeh-Kermani and A’lami; former intelligence minister Ali Fallahian; former foreign ministers Ali Velayati and Manoucher Mottaki; the Expediency Council’s current Secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, and its former head (and current member) Hassan Rowhani; current parliamentarians Mohammad Reza Bahonar and Alireza Zakani; former deputy majles speaker Mohammad Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard; Iranian Minister of Roads and Urbanization Ali Nikzad; Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, the head of the State Inspectorate Organization of Iran, and; former health minister Kamran Baqeri Lankarani. Others, like current majles speaker Ali Larijani, have also floated their interest in running for president, but so far stopped short of formally declaring their candidacy. (Tehran FARS, April 23, 2013; Iran Daily Brief, April 25, 2013)

[Editor’s Note: Before any of the hopefuls can compete in June’s election, however, they will need to formally register in early May—and thereafter pass vetting by the regime’s powerful Guardian Council. The outcome will be a smaller presidential field, and one closely aligned to the interests and policies of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.]