Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 136

IRAN'S POLITICS: PLUS CA CHANGE
The victory of Hassan Rowhani in Iran's June 14th presidential election has fanned hopes among many observers of a more moderate turn to Iranian politics. The soft-spoken 64-year-old cleric has encouraged these aspirations, calling for “constructive interaction” with the West on a range of issues. Yet Rowhani's presidency - which officially begins on August 4th - promises to be more continuity than change, in both political and administrative terms. Rowhani, who previously served as the regime's chief nuclear negotiator, has signalled that he has no intention of attempting to alter the country's current nuclear course. In terms of personnel, Rowhani is likewise clinging to the status quo; Iran's incoming president is reportedly planning to pack his cabinet with old regime hands and government insiders, including past oil minister Bijan Zanganeh and former Iranian UN envoy Mohammad Javad Zarif. (Associated Press, June 15, 2013; Tel Aviv Ha'aretz, June 17, 2013; Reuters, July 29, 2013)

AHMADINEJAD'S SECOND ACT
Now that his term in office is almost up, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is eyeing his next political venture. Iran's firebrand president, who leaves office in early August, is planning to open a new graduate school focused on science and technology. Ahmadinejad was reportedly granted permission by Iran's Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution to open a new "Iranian University" specializing in technology, nanotechnology, and aerospace and nuclear science. (Radio Free Europe, July 29, 2013)

LEFT BEHIND ON LITERACY
According to statistics recently released by the Iranian government, ten million Iranians - more than 10 percent of the Islamic Republic's population - do not know how to read or write. The country's Statistical Center estimates that fourteen percent of people over the age of six cannot read or write at all. But that statistic is potentially even more stark, because the national standard for literacy is being able to read the Quran, yet many in Iran who can read the Quran cannot read anything else. Experts point to the fact that “there are 3.2 million children between the ages of 6 and 17 who have... either not gone to school at all or dropped out.” In some villages, there are no classes at all provided for students after the ninth grade. According to experts, ongoing neglect of national education has led the Islamic Republic to lag behind its regional rivals in rates of literacy. (Tehran Rooz, July 10, 2013)

NEW ENERGY HORIZONS FOR IRAN
The governments of Pakistan and Iraq are both poised to expand their energy cooperation with the Islamic Republic. The centerpiece of energy ties between Tehran and Islamabad is the IP gas pipeline - an energy route which will be able to carry as much as 21.5 million cubic meters of natural gas to Pakistan once it is completed. Iran has already built 900 kilometers of the pipeline on its own territory, and is now aiding Pakistan to construct 700 kilometers of the pipe on its soil. Officials in Islamabad have signaled anew their commitment to the controversial project, declaring it to be integral to Pakistan's energy security.

Iran is making similar progress with Iraq. A $300 million gas pipeline between the two countries (originating near Iran's massive South Pars gas field) is on track to be completed by year's end. Now, the Iraqi government has announced its intention to import as much as 25 million cubic meters of gas daily from the Islamic Republic to fuel its power plants, making the Iranian government a key player in Iraq's energy future. (Press TV, June 25, 2013; Press TV, July 11, 2013)

ECONOMY A KEY TEST FOR ROWHANI
Despite recent developments on the political front, Iran's economy continues its downward spiral. During the period between May 21st and June 21st, the national rate of inflation jumped by nearly half, and now rests at 34.9 percent. Advisors to Iran's incoming president, Hassan Rowhani, are consequently trying to temper national expectations of an easing of economic hardship on his watch. According to Akbar Torkan, a former minister in the Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad governments and a confidante of Iran's new president-elect, “the economic situation of the country is worse than previously thought.” The causes, Torkan has alluded, stem in part from corruption during the Ahmadinejad era. But the country's current program of extensive subsidies on commodities and services also plays a part. So, too, does the burgeoning Iranian black market; currently, Torkan estimates, half of the national economy is dominated by money “from illegal places.” Reforming these deformities, however, will have a dramatic effect on energy prices - making economic reform among the thorniest issues facing the Rowhani presidency. (Al Monitor, July 15, 2013; Reuters, July 25, 2013)