Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 141

AN INTERIM NUCLEAR DEAL WITH THE WEST...
Weeks of diplomatic negotiations in Geneva have netted an "interim" deal between the P5+1 powers and Iran over the latter's nuclear program. Under the agreement, which will be in effect for an initial period of six months, the Iranian regime has agreed to "halt all enrichment above 5% and dismantle the technical connections required to enrich above 5%," to "neutralize its stockpile of near-20% uranium," and "committed to "halt progress on its enrichment capability," according to a fact sheet released by the White House. In exchange, the United States and its allies have agreed to temporarily halt the implementation of some sanctions, as well as unfreeze some $6-10 billion of Iranian assets, providing a much-needed shot in the arm for Iran's ailing economy. (White House, November 23, 2013)

...RAISES JITTERS AMONG AMERICAN ALLIES
The Geneva deal has been greeted with considerable trepidation abroad.Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has termed the agreement a "historic mistake," and pointed out that under the new agreement the Iranian regime is allowed to continue its enrichment of uranium - a condition heretofore deemed unacceptable. As a result, the Iranian regime is "taking only cosmetic steps which it could reverse easily within a few weeks, and in return, sanctions that took years to put in place are going to be eased," Netanyahu said. "This first step could very well be the last step," Netanyahu has warned. "Without continued pressure, what incentive does the Iranian regime have to take serious steps that actually dismantle its nuclear weapons capability?"

Opinion in the Persian Gulf is similarly skeptical. For example, although the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has officially welcomed the Geneva deal, informed sources say that behind the scenes the Kingdom is seething over what it perceives as deception on the part of the United States in reaching the deal - and is now committed to pursuing an "independent" foreign policy in response. In particular, the Saudis fear that diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program will have the effect of legitimizing Iran's interventionist foreign policy throughout the region, and in particular in war-torn Syria, where the Islamic Republic remains a key ally of the regime in its war against the Syrian people. "We will be there to stop them wherever they are," a senior advisor to the Saudi royal family has warned. "We cannot accept Revolutionary Guards running round Homs." (CNN, November 25, 2013; London Telegraph, November 25, 2013)

THE REAL COST OF IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM
How costly are the nuclear ambitions of Iran's ayatollahs? According to a new Israeli estimate, the pricetag of Iran's atomic effort has cost the Islamic Republic a whopping $170 billion to date. The Iranian nuclear program, Israeli security sources say, is estimated to have cost Tehran $40 billion in direct investments over the past two decades. Western sanctions, however, have effectively tripled that cost. And with additional billions lost in banking, trade, and industry, their nuclear program has now cost Iran's ayatollahs some $170 billion. But those costs could at least partially reversed as a result of a diplomatic deal of the sort just signed in Geneva, Israel's Defense Minister has warned. Speaking before a conference in Jerusalem in early November, Moshe Ya'alon warned that even a partial lifting of economic pressure on the Islamic Republic could negate Iran's current dilemma of "going on with the [nuclear] project or to survive as a regime." (Washington Free Beacon, November 12, 2013)

KHAMENEI'S ILLICIT EMPIRE
The Islamic Republic may be reeling under the effect of Western sanctions, but Iran's Supreme Leader still rules over an informal economy worth some $100 billion. A new, multi-part expose by the Reuters news agency has laid bare how Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei today controls a vast fiscal empire worth billions of dollars, amassed through illicit property seizures over the past three decades. According to the investigation, an organization known as SETAD - "Setad Ejraiye Farmane Hazrate Emam," or the Headquarters for Executing the Order of the Imam - which "built its empire on the systematic seizure of thousands of properties belonging to ordinary Iranians: members of religious minorities... as well as Shi'ite Muslims, business people and Iranians living abroad." Today, SETAD is worth an estimated $95 billion, and through it Khamenei controls a financial empire "whose value rivals the holdings of the shah" in pre-revolutionary Iran." (Reuters, November 11, 2013)

IRAN, NORTH KOREA COOPERATE ON ICBMS
Iran's strategic partnership with the DPRK continues to pay dividends for the Islamic Republic. A delegation of Iranian technical experts are reported to have recently visited the regime of Kim Jong-un as part of ongoing collaboration on the development of a new rocket booster - technology that could provide a major boost to Iran's long-range missile effort. U.S. intelligence sources describe the 80-ton booster in question as a potential thruster for a "super ICBM" or a "heavy lift space launcher." The visit came against the backdrop of nuclear negotiations between Iran and Western powers in Geneva, which yielded a preliminary accord over Iran's nuclear program - but not its work on ballistic missile technology. (Washington Free Beacon, November 26, 2013)