[Editor’s Note: The interim nuclear deal negotiated in Geneva between Iran and the P5+1 powers (Russia, China, the U.S., Great Britain, France and Germany) has generated a firestorm of controversy since its signing in late November. The agreement, which has yet to come into force, stipulates greater Western oversight of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for a rollback of U.S. and allied sanctions over an interim period of six months, to be renewed or followed by a final status deal. What follows is a survey of reactions to, and events precipitated by, the Geneva agreement.]
SANCTIONS RELIEF, BUT HOW SIGNIFICANT?
Days after the signing of the deal, the Obama administration announced that it was unblocking some $8 billion in assets from Iranian oil sales frozen to date as a confidence building measure toward the Islamic Republic. Iranian officials, however, are anticipating much more economic relief still to come. According to Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, Abbas Araqchi, Iran has been assured “access” to a further $15 billion under the terms of the agreement. As a result, Iran is poised to receive at least $20 billion-worth of sanctions relief – equivalent to nearly half of the country's hard-currency reserves (which are currently estimated at some $50 billion) and far greater than what had originally been envisioned by the White House. (Washington Free Beacon, November 25, 2013; Tehran PressTV, November 30, 2013; Tel Aviv Ha’aretz, December 11, 2013)
CORPORATIONS JOCKEY FOR BUSINESS IN IRAN...
The terms of the Geneva agreement have prompted growing attention from U.S. and European firms eager to reenter (or expand their presence in) the Iranian market. The deal includes a significant easing of restrictions on investment a number in Iran’s petrochemical and pharmaceutical sectors, paving the way for companies like GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi and Siemens – which had previously curtailed their business in the Islamic Republic—to broaden their presence there. Iran’s automotive sector in particular has emerged as a growth industry. Steady demand had already positioned Iran as the fastest-growing car market in the Middle East, and now the prospective easing of sanctions has poised the industry for serious expansion. In just one sign of this newfound dynamism, Iran Khodro, the country’s largest carmaker, is now looking for international partners, with negotiations said to be underway with French automakers Peugot and Renault. (Wall Street Journal, December 1, 2013; London Guardian, December 13, 2013)
...WHILE OIL BUYERS DIVE BACK IN
Foreign importers of Iranian oil are returning to the Iranian market as well, encouraged by signals from the State Department that the White House has temporarily suspended application of the 2010 Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act – under which countries must certify that they are decreasing their acquisitions of Iranian oil in order to avoid sanctions from the United States. Exports of oil from Iran to South Korea, for example, have increased an estimated 26 percent from October to November 2013, with Seoul’s November imports totaling 532,851 tons of Iranian oil. Chinese imports, too, have surged; in the wake of the Geneva deal, the PRC more than doubled its imports of crude from the Islamic Republic, from 249,848 barrels per day in October to 538,513 barrels daily in November. (Islamic Republic News Agency, December 15, 2013; Tehran PressTV, December 23, 2013)
NUCLEAR DEAL VIEWED WITH SKEPTICISM BY THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE...
Despite the Obama administration’s optimism, the American public maintains a generally negative view of the new agreement with Iran, according to the results of a new poll by the prestigious Pew Research Center. The study, conducted in early December, found “broad skepticism” from respondents regarding the Geneva deal, with 43 percent of those polled disapproving of the agreement. Moreover, the Geneva agreement has done little to change public perceptions regarding Iran’s strategic objectives. “The public’s doubts about the intentions of Iran’s leaders are as high as they were last month before the nuclear agreement,” the survey outlined. (Pew, December 9, 2013)
...AND IN IRAN
Skepticism appears prevalent in Iran as well. In the wake of the Geneva deal, hardliners in Iran dubbed the agreement a “poisoned chalice” and a blow to Iran’s prestige – prompting frenzied domestic lobbying from both Iranian president Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. But at least some remain dissatisfied, and are working to demolish the agreement. A number of conservative parliamentarians are reportedly contemplating a bill which would require the Iranian government to enrich uranium to at least 60 percent purity. “Given the method that the other negotiating side (the US in particular) has adopted during the nuclear negotiations, the legislators are working on a bill which will require the government to increase the level of uranium enrichment to over 60%,” Seyed Mehdi Moussavinejad, a member of the majles’ Energy Commission, has confirmed. (Associated Press, November 27, 2013; Tehran FARS, December 14, 2013)