IRAN, P5+1 STRIKE TENTATIVE NUCLEAR DEAL...
On April 2nd, following days of around-the-clock meetings in Lausanne, Switzerland, negotiators from the P5+1 powers and Iran announced that they had agreed upon the framework of a nuclear deal. The pact is a preliminary one, with a final version to be concluded by the parties by June 30th. Nevertheless, it represents a major development in the long-running negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. Under the framework accord, the Islamic Republic has agreed to reduce the number of its operational centrifuges by roughly two-thirds, from 19,000 to 5,060, and to keep them there for at least a decade. It also has pledged to keep enrichment at "civilian" levels (under 5 percent) for the same timeframe. In exchange, the West will provide the Iranian regime with meaningful sanctions relief, including a repeal of all multilateral sanctions levied against it under the auspices of the United Nations. (Times of Israel, April 2, 2015)
...BUT IS THERE A MEETING OF THE MINDS?
Quickly, however, disagreements regarding the particulars of what was actually agreed to in Lausanne have begun to appear. Sanctions relief is among the biggest sticking points; the United States has said that it expects a phased lifting of sanctions, dependent on proper verification that the Iranian regime is complying with the terms of the agreement. The Iranian regime, on the other hand, has made clear it expects a wholesale removal of all sanctions levied against it as soon as the deal goes into force. All told, according to Ehud Ya'ari, one of Israel's most respected strategic analysts, Iran and the United States are at odds over half-a-dozen substantive points of the deal. Each of these issues, Ya'ari warns, could end up sinking the agreement, either before or after it is signed. (Times of Israel, April 4, 2015)
HEDGING ON VERIFICATION IN TEHRAN
Another potential problem is the issue of verification. Although Western powers have made clear that they expect extensive access to Iranian nuclear facilities, regime officials clearly have other ideas. The country's top military officer has expressly ruled out the possibility of opening up the country's military installations to international oversight. "The armed forces will not allow anyone to enter military sites," Maj. Gen. Hassan Fairuz Abadi, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian armed forces, has announced publicly.(DubaiAl-Arabiya, April 11, 2015)
[EDITORS' NOTE: The decision represents a major problem for oversight of Iranian nuclear activities, insofar as many of the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities are co-located with sensitive military sites. Exclusion of these sites from inspection precludes the possibility of complete verification that Iran remains within the confines of the April 2nd framework.]
MIXED REACTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST
News of the deal has been greeted with mixed reactions throughout the Middle East, where Iran's neighbors remain deeply apprehensive of the Islamic Republic's nascent nuclear potential. Thus, after remaining silent for days about the deal, the Saudi government on April 6th issued a statement tepidly endorsing the Lausanne deal and expressing "hope for attaining a binding and definitive agreement that would lead to the strengthening of security and stability in the region and the world."
Meanwhile, in Israel, news of the deal has generated considerable controversy. Some prominent politicians, like former military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin, have been guardedly optimistic about the terms of the agreement, especially when weighed against other options. Without a framework, "Iran could have decided on a breakout, ignored the international community, refused to respond to questions about its arsenal, continued to quickly enrich and put together a bomb before anyone could have had time to react," Yadlin said in a public interview. But the country's incoming government is taking a decidedly dimmer view. Recently reelected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has blasted the agreement as capitulation to Iran, and took to the national airwaves the day after the P5+1 deal was announced to reiterate that "Israel will not accept an agreement which allows a country that vows to annihilate us to develop a nuclear weapon." (Al-Monitor, April 3, 2015; Tel Aviv Arutz Sheva, April 3, 2015; Politico, April 6, 2015)
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