Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 156

ISRAEL IN THE CROSSHAIRS
Even as it moves closer to detente with the West, Iran is doubling down on its hostility to Israel. According to Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the commander of Iran's basij militia, "erasing Israel off the map" remains a "nonnegotiable" objective of the Iranian regime. Iran's principal way to attain this objective, the militia chief said, was the support of Palestinian rejectionist groups active in both the Gaza Strip and West Bank. "Arming the West Bank has started and weapons will be supplied to the people in this region," according to Naqdi. "The Zionists should know that the next war won't be confined to the present borders and the Mujahedeen will push them back." (Times of Israel, March 31, 2015)

THE IRGC AND THE NUCLEAR DEAL
The recent nuclear framework agreement between Iran and the P5+1 continues to have reverberations within Iran. Most recently, in a sign that Iran's conservative power centers back a compromise with the West, the head of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has thrown his weight behind the deal. In comments to the country's major news agencies, Mohammad Ali Jafari lauded the success of the Iranian regime in its "diplomatic battle" against the West, which resulted in a defense of Iranian "rights." The remarks were construed as an oblique endorsement of the April 2nd deal by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

This does not mean that the IRGC is fully on board with the agreement, however. One of the clerical army's main concerns appears to be the "ambiguities" surrounding the scope of relief from sanctions that Iran will receive as a result. According to Jafari, these discrepancies "should be clarified" or they could lead to "disagreements" between Tehran and Washington. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, April 6, 2015; Tehran PressTV, April 11, 2015)

[EDITORS' NOTE: Jafari's interest is understandable - and pragmatic. Given its economic clout within the Islamic Republic (by some estimates as much as 1/3 of the national economy), the IRGC would inevitably be one of the biggest beneficiaries of significant sanctions relief now being proffered by the West.]

IRAN'S NEW PROJECT: "GLOBAL ZERO"
Fresh off its nuclear compromise with the West in Lausanne, Switzerland, the Iranian regime has set its sights on a new diplomatic goal. Iran's deputy envoy to the United Nations, Gholam Hossein Dehghani, has floated the idea of a "comprehensive, binding, irreversible, verifiable" disarmament treaty before the forum. The new push - which echoes the idea of "global zero" nuclear weapons espoused in recent years by some international statesmen - comes ahead of a scheduled five-year review of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which Iran is a signatory. (Associated Press, April 8, 2015)

AFTER LAUSANNE, NEW OVERTURES FROM RUSSIA...
The framework accord signed between Iran and the P5+1 powers is having a marked - and beneficial - effect on Iran’s relations with at least one nation: Russia. On April 13th, the Kremlin formally repealed its longstanding ban on the delivery of S-300 air defense systems to Iran. That controversial sale, concluded in 2007, had been held in abeyance for years by Moscow in a move that generated considerable friction with Tehran. Now, however, Russia has reversed course, and the decision appears to have everything to do with the West's nuclear diplomacy. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as a result of the "progress" made to date on Iran's nuclear program his government no longer sees "any reason to continue to keep the ban unilaterally." (Moscow RT, April 13, 2015; Reuters, April 16, 2015)

...AND CHINA
Russia is not the only nation eyeing an expanded partnership with Iran, however. China, too, is now exploring an expanded defense relationship with the Islamic Republic now that a tentative nuclear deal has been reached. To that end, China's Defense Minister, Chang Wanquan, threw his weight behind the idea of tripartite strategic cooperation between Iran, Russia and China against "common threats" during a recent state visit to Tehran. Beijing also recently announced plans to build some five new nuclear plants in the Islamic Republic. (Washington Free Beacon, April 15, 2015; Tehran Tasnim, April 18, 2015)