On July 14th, the United States and its negotiating partners in the P5+1 (the UK, Russia, China, France and Germany) formally unveiled the long-awaited nuclear agreement with Iran. The agreement has touched off a flurry of activity on Capitol Hill, where Congress has begun deliberations over the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the deal is formally termed. It has also been greeted with widespread consternation in the Middle East, where regional states see the agreement as a diplomatic victory for Iran - and a harbinger of rising Iranian regional clout.
IN WASHINGTON, WORRIES OVER LATENT NUCLEAR POTENTIAL
Although the Obama Administration has assured the American public that the new nuclear agreement eliminates any possibility of acquiring a nuclear weapon, the Islamic Republic can still acquire and atomic capability by clandestine means, a leading proliferation expert has warned. "The Natanz, Fordow, and Arak pathways," the main means by which Iran could nuclearize, "would involve Iran building a bomb mostly through work at known locations, with technology and materials that it already possesses," writes Orde Kittrie, a former State Department nonproliferation specialist and attorney, in Foreign Affairs. "So long as the deal is in place, keeping these three pathways closed will depend largely on the vigor with which the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitor known locations and respond to readily detectible violations." But at least one avenue still remains open. "The fourth pathway, in contrast, would include Iran creating a secret, parallel new nuclear program with technology and materials covertly procured from foreign suppliers." And Iran's extensive nuclear contacts with private suppliers, including those in China, makes this a real possibility, Kittrie warns. (Foreign Affairs, July 13, 2015)
A SHOT IN THE ARM FOR IRAN'S MILITARY BUDGET
Relying on significant sanctions relief expected as a result of the JCPOA, Iran's leaders are now bracing themselves for a period of strategic expansion. In the Islamic Republic's Sixth Development Plan, formally unveiled on June 30th, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei outlines plans for a number of martial measures, among them the expansion of the national defense budget to five percent of GDP, as well as an upgrade of defense capabilities as a hedge against "all forms of external threats." The increase means that Iran's defense spending, currently pegged at some $14 billion annually, will grow to $17 billion or more per year. (Al-Monitor, July 14, 2015)
FEAR AND LOATHING IN RIYADH...
News of the nuclear deal is being greeted with trepidation by Iran's neighbors in the Persian Gulf. Writing for the London-based Arabic news website Elaph, former Saudi intelligence chief (and U.S. envoy) Bandar bin Sultan has warned that the agreement "will wreak havoc in the Middle East." According to Prince Bandar, the agreement struck with Iran is far worse than the one hammered out with North Korea back in 1994. "President Obama made his decision to go ahead with the Iran nuclear deal fully aware that the strategic foreign policy analysis, the national intelligence information, and America's allies in the region’s intelligence all predict not only the same outcome of the North Korean nuclear deal but worse - with the billions of dollars that Iran will have access to," he writes.
The result, Bandar noted, is a more volatile region - and one where America's influence is sure to diminish still further. "People in my region now are relying on God's will, and consolidating their local capabilities and analysis with everybody else except our oldest and most powerful ally." (Riyadh Al-Arabiya, July 16, 2015)
...AND IN ISRAEL
Israeli leaders, meanwhile, have come to much the same conclusion. In an interview with Israel's Channel 2 television, former Israeli Prime Minister (and Defense Minister) Ehud Barak warned of the probable consequences of the "bad" deal struck between Iran and the P5+1 powers in Vienna. "It is very likely that Iran, walking in the footsteps of North Korea and Pakistan, will become a nuclear state sometime in the next decade," Barak said.
For his part, Barak's former boss has taken a hard line against the agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told reporters that his government does not consider itself "bound" by the deal, which he termed a "stunning historic mistake." "We will always defend ourselves," Netanyahu said, raising the specter of potential unilateral Israeli military action against Iran. (Times of Israel, July 14, 2015)