Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 160

IRAN SEEKS RESTITUTION - AND RETRIBUTION
In the wake of this summer's nuclear deal with the West, the Islamic Republic is pressing its diplomatic advantage against the United States. In recent days, Iranian lawmakers have introduced a bill demanding compensation from the United States for what they claim are "damages inflicted" to the Iranian people over the past four decades. "In order to redeem the rights of the Iranian nation, the Administration is obliged to take necessary legal measures on receiving compensations and damages from the American government" for its past actions, the draft legislation outlines.

Topping the list of grievances outlined in the legislation is the CIA-instigated 1953 coup that toppled the nationalist government of Muhammad Mosaddeq and installed Shah Reza Pahlavi as ruler of Iran - the incident that a great many Iranians still see as the "original sin" of the United States against their country. But other perceived transgressions - including purported American support for the Mujahedeen e-Khalq organization, which Iran labels as a terrorist group, and U.S. complicity with Saddam Hussein during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War - also figure prominently in the bill of particulars. (Tehran Kayhan, December 29, 2015)

THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC'S DEEPENING WATER WOES
Iran's already-precarious hydrological situation continues to worsen. Over the past half-century, the country has used up some 70 percent of its groundwater supplies. An ongoing drought - now in its seventh year - has left it without adequate rainwater supplies and further exacerbated the situation, leaving the country headed headlong into hydrological disaster. According to experts, "even a return to past rainfall levels might not be enough to head off a nationwide water crisis." (Washington Post, December 19, 2015)

IRANIAN CYBERWARFARE, RESURGENT
Just months after the conclusion of its nuclear deal with the West, the Islamic Republic is ramping up its cyberwarfare activities once again. This Fall, Iranian hackers carried out an extensive campaign targeting State Department officials working on Iranian and Middle Eastern issues via social media in order to glean information about American policies. The incident, U.S. officials say, represents a return to the destructive cyber activities that characterized Iranian behavior between 2012 and 2014, albeit now with a new objective: the exploitation of cyberspace as a key arena of strategic influence, now that a nuclear agreement with the West has been concluded. (New York Times, November 25, 2015)

GAMING IRAN'S NEXT SUPREME LEADER
This coming February, the Islamic Republic will hold two simultaneous elections. The first will select delegates for the majles, Iran's unicameral parliament. The second, and far more consequential, contest will be for appointment to an influential clerical body known as the Assembly of Experts. The 82 members of the Assembly serve eight year terms, and oversee the post of Iran's most important religious authority, the Supreme Leader. The flagging health of the current Supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as his lack of a clear successor, means that the next members of the Assembly will invariably have the task of appointing the next one - making its delegates virtual kingmakers in Iranian politics.

Accordingly, the political jockeying surrounding the election is already heating up. In a break with tradition, former Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has divulged that the Assembly has "appointed a group to list the qualified people that will be put to a vote" in the event of Khamenei's demise, and that the possibility of "a council of leaders" instead of a single individual is being considered. Rafsanjani, meanwhile, clearly hopes to cast one of the deciding votes; he is among the most prominent candidates now running for election to the Assembly. (Reuters, December 13, 2015)