Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 162

IRAN'S ELECTIONS: LESS THAN MEETS THE EYE
On February 13th, the Islamic Republic held concurrent elections for the country's parliament, known as the majles, and the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body tasked with overseeing the duties and post of the country's Supreme Leader. Although the popular narrative in the media has been that "reformists" aligned with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani have emerged as the victors in both electoral contests, the reality is considerably more modest. "The nomenclature we use to describe Iranian politicians... must be understood in the context of Iranian politics," Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace tells The Atlantic magazine. To wit, while "reformists" appear to have won, "given the mass disqualifications that took place before the election, the majority of these folks are unknown quantities, and a few of them actually self-identify as conservatives."

In analyzing the elections, Sadjadpour admonishes, we must be careful "not to conflate our hopes and our analysis." "We would like to see moderates prevail and therefore our analysis reflects that fact," he notes. As a result, "[w]e have continually underestimated the resilience and persistence of the forces of authoritarianism in the Middle East." (The Atlantic, March 3, 2016)

THE IRANIAN MILITARY GOES ON THE SECTARIAN OFFENSIVE
The Iranian military is mobilizing a "rapid reaction force" to confront the Islamic State terrorist group and other assorted radicals that the Iranian regime dubs takfiris (apostates). According to Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Kurdistan, commander of Iran's standing army (known as the Artesh), the units are being formed to expand the regime's capability to "react quickly to any threats" along Iran's nearly 1,500 kilometer-long border with Iraq, to which Islamic State detachments have moved progressively closer in recent weeks.

The Islamic State is not the only threat the new force will confront, however. Iranian officials have cited other Sunni radical groups, such as al-Qaeda and its Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, as potential targets - and increasingly important ones, given Iran's extensive and ongoing military and paramilitary presence in Syria in support of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. (Radio Farda, March 3, 2016)

A SOARING EXECUTION RATE
The UN's envoy for human rights in Iran has issued a scathing indictment of domestic conditions within the Islamic Republic. In his latest report, UN Special Rapporteur Ahmed Shaheed noted what he described as a "staggering surge" in executions being carried out by the Iranian government. According to Shaheed, the nearly one-thousand prisoners publicly executed by the Iranian regime last year was "the highest rate in over two decades." This rash of executions is made possible by "draconian laws" that - among other things - make possession of minute quantities of drugs a hanging offense.

Iran's justice system, moreover, appears to be disproportionately targeting the country's young. "The number of juvenile offenders executed between 2014 and 2015 - which is reportedly 16 - was higher than at any time during the past five years," Shaheed has told reporters. (Reuters, March 10, 2016)

NUCLEAR OVERSIGHT OF IRAN SHRINKS
The new nuclear deal with Iran - formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA - was intended to provide the international community with greater information about the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities and processes. However, the opposite appears to be happening. According to Yukiya Amano, the head of the UN's dedicated nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the JCPOA has superseded previous United Nations resolutions requiring the agency's reports to issue detailed facts and figures on the state of Iran's nuclear effort. Instead, Amano has told reporters, those requirements have been replaced by the provisions of the JCPOA, which prohibits the IAEA from sharing details of its findings with the broader international community.

The development has observers crying foul. In a recent policy brief for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank, Olli Heinonen - himself a former deputy director of the IAEA - writes that the Agency's most recent report "provides insufficient details on important verification and monitoring issues." "The report does not list inventories of nuclear materials and equipment or the status of key sites and facilities," according to Heinonen - something that represents a significant problem. "Without detailed reporting, the international community cannot be sure that Iran is upholding its commitments under the nuclear deal." (Washington Free Beacon, March 7, 2016)