Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 168

Related Categories: Islamic Extremism; Terrorism; Iran

IRAN'S IRAQI BEACHHEAD GETS BIGGER
Iran's asymmetric military presence in Iraq remains both extensive and lethal, according to U.S. military officials. According to estimates proffered by Pentagon representatives, there are now as many as 100,000 fighters associated with Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias active in Iraq under the umbrella of the "Popular Mobilization Forces." The figure, U.S. analysts note, indicates a further broadening of Iran's already-extensive involvement in Iraq, where the lack of a coordinated U.S. military presence has led the Iraqi government to rely on Tehran's assistance in the fight against the Islamic State terrorist group.

The Islamic Republic is using that state of affairs to broaden its military footprint on the territory of its western neighbor. The Iranian regime is said to now be running six separate military camps between the cities of Kirkuk and Mosul in northern Iraq. The sites are reportedly supervised by military officials affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' paramilitary arm, known as the Quds Force, Kurdish rebel officials have disclosed. (Fox News, August 16, 2016; London Asharq Al-Awsat, August 22, 2016)

A NEW PUSH INTO LATIN AMERICA

On August 21st, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif kicked off a six-nation tour of Latin America. The trip, which entailed visits to Cuba, Nicaragua, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador, Bolivia and Venezuela, was intended as a very public affirmation of Iran's enduring investment in the Western Hemisphere. "There are many fields for economic cooperation between Iran and these six countries, but the capacities have yet to be fully utilized," Iran's deputy foreign minister, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, told state media ahead of the trip. Zarif's visit, he said, was intended to correct this deficiency and elevate Iran's economic cooperation with Latin America to "a whole new level." (Tehran Mehr, August 17, 2016)

RUSSIAN FIGHTERS IN IRAN?

Controversy is swirling over the current status of the Russo-Iranian military partnership, at least as it pertains to Syria. In mid-August, the governments of the two countries announced that Russia had deployed fighter aircraft in western Iran, from where they would carry out combat missions on Syrian territory in support of the Assad regime. Since then, however, the Iranian government - apparently miffed at Moscow's very-public use of its facilities, and the international attention this has brought - announced that the Russian military operations had been concluded, at least for the moment.

That, however, doesn't appear to be the end of the story. Ali Larijani, the speaker of Iran's parliament, confirmed in late August that Russia's use of the military facilities is ongoing as part of both countries' "fight against terrorism." U.S. officials, for their part, have not been able to confirm definitively that the Russian combat operations out of Iran have ceased, but many observers believe the Russian military presence within the Islamic Republic is ongoing. (Tehran Tasnim, August 22, 2016; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, August 23, 2016)

IRAN'S NEWEST INVESTOR

Slowly but surely, European nations are reengaging economically with the Iranian regime. The latest entrant into the Iranian market is Norway, which has just concluded three new trade deals worth an estimated 1 billion Euros ($1.12 billion). The agreements, inked by the Export Guarantee Fund of Iran and the Norwegian Export Credit Guarantee Agency, pave the way for Oslo to become a major stakeholder in Iran's economic and banking sectors. "After the lifting of sanctions, good opportunities have emerged for cooperation and Norway is ready to utilize the post-deal situation to expand cooperation in various fields," Norwegian Foreign Minister Borge Brende has said. (Tehran Times, August 17, 2016)