Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 81

TOWARD A GAS OPEC
Three of the world's top natural gas producers could soon band together in a new – and ominous – energy alliance. On October 21st, Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari met in Tehran with his Qatari counterpart, Abdulla Bin Hamad al-Attiya, and the head of Russia's Gazprom monopoly, Alexei Miller. The subject of their meeting was the creation of an organization of natural gas-exporting countries. The talks are the first signs of serious international interest in a proposal, first put forward by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in January 2007, for the world's leading natural gas producers to band together in a cartel modeled after the one which currently dominates the world oil trade. Iran's leaders have made their interest in the idea clear; the Islamic Republic will "seriously pursue the formation" of such a grouping, Nozari announced on Iranian state television following the meeting with al-Attiya and Miller. (Associated Press, October 21, 2008)

[Editor's Note: If it materializes, such a cartel would have tremendous economic power, as well as the geopolitical clout to roil world markets. According to the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration, between them Russia, Iran and Qatar are home to nearly sixty percent (3,533 trillion cubic feet) of the world's proven natural gas reserves.]

FEAR AND LOATHING IN CAIRO
In a sign of simmering Iranian-Egyptian tensions, as well as growing Sunni unease over Iran's expanding influence in the region, one of the Muslim world's most prominent religious figures has accused Iran of a stealth campaign to spread its ideology among its neighbors. "What is happening is organized, an invasion," controversial Egyptian cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi said in televised remarks on Doha's al-Jazeera television channel in late September. "It is not a religious invasion but a political one. Iran is trying to impose itself on those around it and we refuse to follow a new form of neo-colonialism, be it Iranian or any other."

Qaradawi's comments are the latest in a string of increasingly vocal warnings from Egyptian officials about a "covert Shi'ite invasion” in their country. "We won't allow the existence of a Shi'ite tide in Egyptian mosques," the country's Minister of Waqf (religious endowments), Mahmoud Hamdi Zaqzuq, told an Egyptian newspaper back in July. (Agence France Presse, September 28, 2008)

PREEMPTION, IRANIAN STYLE
Is the Islamic Republic planning a preemptive military strike on Israel? That, at least, is the message being conveyed to Western officials by a key Iranian strategist with close ties to the clerical regime in Tehran. According to Seyed Safavi, the head of Iran's Research Institute of Strategic Studies and an advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a group of Iranian policy planners have been lobbying in recent weeks in favor of a preemptive attack on the Jewish state as a way of heading off possible Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear facilities. Though still notional, the recommendation was prompted by "recent Israeli declarations and harsh rhetoric on a strike against Iran," Safavi told foreign diplomats at a recent briefing in London. (Tel Aviv Ha'aretz, October 22, 2008)

MORE MISCHIEF IN IRAQ
Iranian officials have long maintained that their regime seeks stability in Iraq, and is acting strictly in good faith there. A slew of intelligence documents recently declassified by the United States military, however, indicate otherwise. The papers, a compilation of intelligence studies gleaned from the confessions of captured Shi’a insurgents, outline an elaborate network of training compounds, safe houses and transit routes used by the Iranian regime to train, equip and insert Iraqi militants into the fighting in the former Ba’athist state. Business in this industry, moreover, appears to be booming. U.S. officials believe that Iran’s illicit training network has expanded considerably over the past year, as Iraqi fighters have fled for greener pastures in the face of Coalition operations and a clampdown by the Iraqi government. (New York Times, October 19, 2008)