IRANIAN COALITION-BUILDING
For more than a year, the Bush administration has attempted to cobble together a coalition of Sunni Arab states in the Persian Gulf by which to deter and contain Iran. But this initiative has met with only limited success, undermined by the November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate and regional fears of an imminent retraction of U.S. power from the region. Iran, meanwhile, is attempting to build a coalition of its own. Thus, during his recent trip to Kuwait, majles speaker Ali Larijani announced that his government was ready to provide the countries of the Persian Gulf with "adequate" security and economic guarantees that would make partnership with the U.S. unnecessary. "The U.S. seeks to find a fictitious foe, notably Iran, in this region in order to take control of Gulf money, especially in light of the U.S. economic crisis," Larijani cautioned reporters in Kuwait City during his stay. The solution advocated by Larijani was simple: greater partnership with Tehran on the part of regional states. (Kuwait City KUNA, October 23, 2008)
ISRAEL THINKS THE UNTHINKABLE
For years, policymakers in Jerusalem have held out hopes that the United States and other Western powers will band together to confront and neutralize the threat posed by an Iranian "bomb." This is apparently no longer the case. A new assessment carried out by Israeli Military Intelligence and recently provided to caretaker premier Ehud Olmert reportedly concludes that "Western states will not succeed in halting the Iranian nuclear program." At best, the intelligence analysis says, Western sanctions have the ability to "slightly delay" Iran's ability to generate enough highly enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon - something Israeli officials believe will happen by late 2009, if not sooner. (Tel Aviv Ha'aretz, October 28, 2008)
HARD TIMES FOR AHMADINEJAD
Over the past two weeks, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has cancelled a number of public appearances, fanning speculation in the press that he could be seriously ill. The president's aides have now confirmed his poor health, attributing it to the stresses of his office and taking pains to reassure reporters that the situation is only temporary. "The president will eventually recover and continue his job," Mohammad Ismail Kowsari, an advisor to Ahmadinejad, has told reporters. "Every human being can face exhaustion under such a workload."
In the meantime, though, Ahmadinejad's government has unexpectedly found itself at the center of a corruption scandal. Iran's Inspector General, Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, has reportedly submitted a secret report to the Iranian parliament alleging gross corruption and graft by the current government. The majles is still said to be reviewing the information, but Ahmadinejad's followers are already striking back: the government has reportedly filed a complaint against Pour-Mohammadi, charging that he submitted false economic information to lawmakers. (Tel Aviv Ha'aretz, October 26, 2008; shahabnews.com, October 28, 2008)
AN INDO-IRANIAN DIVORCE?
President Bush has made a partnership with India a major priority of his administration's second term, proposing - and then successfully backing, both at home and abroad - a new nuclear deal with Delhi that rolls back U.S. sanctions on the South Asian state and lays the groundwork for far greater economic and strategic cooperation between the two countries. Now, the successful effort appears to be paying dividends in another area as well. "Up until some three years ago, there was a constant refrain in India-Iran political exchanges - that their relationship constituted a factor of peace and stability in the region," writes MK Bhadrakumar, a former Indian diplomat. "But the mantra was completely lacking" during Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee's October 31st-November 2nd visit to Tehran, which failed to paper over growing differences between the two countries on a number of fronts, ranging from Iranian support for Pakistan's position vis-à-vis Kashmir and clashing approaches to Afghanistan. Bhadrakumar's conclusion? "The two countries are drifting apart." (Hong Kong Asia Times, November 5, 2008)
Want these sent to your inbox?
Subscribe
