(ATTEMPTED) DIALOGUE OF THE DEAF
During the presidential campaign season, then-Democratic hopeful Barack Obama famously called for a "surge of diplomacy" to deal with Iran's persistent nuclear ambitions. And since his electoral victory, the president-elect appears to be sticking by his pledge. On December 7th, Obama proffered what amounts to a preliminary negotiating package to the Iranians. Appearing on NBC's Meet the Press television program, he suggested that his administration would be willing to provide "economic incentives" to the Islamic Republic if the regime there would moderate its stance on its nuclear program. "You know, in terms of carrots, I think that we can provide economic incentives that would be helpful to a country that, despite being a net oil producer, is under enormous strain, huge inflation, a lot of unemployment problems there," Obama suggested.
Iran's rulers appear to have other ideas, however. It took less than a day for Tehran to formally shoot down Obama's offer. "The carrot-and-stick policy has no benefit," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hasan Qashqavi told reporters during his weekly press briefing. "It is unacceptable and failed." (Associated Press, December 8, 2008)
KHAMENEI DOES STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION
In recent years, Iran's ruling clergy has made no secret of its antagonism to the Internet, launching successive campaigns to limit the online access of ordinary Iranians. But that does not mean that Iran's rulers are not thinking about how to leverage the World-Wide Web to their own advantage. A case in point is Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, whose office has announced that its revamped website – now under construction – will soon be available in no less than ten languages. Currently, the Internet presence of Iran's most powerful religious figure (found at www.leader.ir) provides news and content in just four languages: Persian, Arabic, Urdu and English. Khamenei's new website, however, will include content in French, Spanish, Azeri, Russian, Indonesian and German as well in a move that appears calculated to broaden the reach of the regime's message to the international community. (Tehran Fars, December 17, 2008)
THE MAJLES, MARCHING TOWARD IRRELEVANCE
Back in March, conservative candidates dominated the polls during parliamentary elections, running the tables on their "reformist" counterparts. Now, the conservative majority in Iran's majles is poised to relegate the legislature into even greater obscurity. In a counterintuitive move, the majles has passed new legislation banning itself from investigating other branches of the Iranian government. Specifically, the powerful Assembly of Experts, responsible for appointing the Supreme Leader and supervising his performance, the Guardian Council, an oversight body tasked with advising the Supreme Leader and interpreting the constitution, and the Islamic Republic's main arbitration body, the Expediency Council, will all now be exempt from parliamentary inquiry. So will any other "institution under the Supreme Leader's authority," as per the new rule – a writ that critics say is a carte blanche for Iran's unelected clerical elite to further sideline the country's legislature on governance issues. (Tehran Rooz, December 14, 2008)
DWINDLING DREAMS OF ENERGY DOMINANCE
The Iranian regime may still be putting a brave face on its economic prospects, but the Islamic Republic's declining energy clout could portend major fiscal woes – and a diminished international status – in the near future. That is the conclusion of a new assessment just put out by the Singapore-based consulting group Facts Global Energy. "Without a major change in policy and investment climate in Iran, crude oil production and exports are projected to decline drastically in the future," the study says. "The incremental supply that Iran is promising to the world will simply not be available." All told, according to the study, the Islamic Republic – currently OPEC's second-largest producer – could be forced to reduce oil output by as much as a quarter by the middle of the next decade. (Doha Gulf Times, December 10, 2008)
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