A NUCLEAR SCRAMBLE
Is the Iranian nuclear project in trouble? The Islamic Republic could hit a critical hurdle in its nuclear development in coming months, as its domestic stocks of yellowcake uranium become progressively depleted, Western diplomatic sources believe. The conclusion, made by a number of Western intelligence agencies late in 2008, has set off a frantic diplomatic effort on the part of the United States and its allies to deny Iran the ability to purchase additional stocks of "yellowcake" – a key component in the uranium enrichment process – from abroad. As part of this offensive, the British government has reportedly begun lobbying the governments of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Brazil, all of which have sizeable stores of uranium, to abstain from any such sales to Iran. (Times of London, January 24, 2009)
KHATAMI THROWS HIS HAT IN THE RING
After months of speculation about his possible future role in Iranian politics, former president Mohammad Khatami has officially thrown his hat in the ring for the country's upcoming presidential elections. "I strongly announce my candidacy in the election," the "reformist" cleric has told reporters. Khatami becomes the third candidate, after sitting Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former majles speaker Mehdi Kharroubi, to officially announce his participation in the June polls.
Khatami's decision follows a surge in popularity in recent months among Iranians increasingly discontented with domestic conditions. However, at least one observer has warned that a Khatami presidency - however attractive - would be deeply counterproductive. For one thing, "Iran's political infrastructure is designed in a way that does not entitle an elected president like Khatami – who is affiliated with a large, popular, political trend, but is weak authoritatively – to run Iran's higher political policy in a way he deems appropriate," Arab political commentator Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed has written. For another, reformists like Khatami are "a wingless dove" in Iranian politics; politically attractive but institutionally weak. If some sort of accommodation is to be reached with Tehran, "it must be reached with the true people in power." (Los Angeles Times, February 9, 2009; London Al-Sharq al-Awsat, February 10, 2009)
FROM WASHINGTON, AN AFFIRMATION OF DIPLOMATIC INTENT
During the 2008 presidential campaign, then-Democratic candidate Barack Obama emphasized his intention to engage in "direct diplomacy, without preconditions" with the Islamic Republic. Since taking office last month, his administration has made clear that engagement remains the goal of the White House - provided Tehran plays ball with the international community over its nuclear program. "Our administration is reviewing policy toward Iran, but this much is clear: we will be willing to talk," Vice President Joe Biden announced before the Munich Security Conference on February 8th. "We will be willing to talk to Iran, and to offer a very clear choice: continue down your current course and there will be pressure and isolation; abandon the illicit nuclear program and your support for terrorism and there will be meaningful incentives." (London Telegraph, February 8, 2009)
[Editor's Note: The Administration's commitment is more than simply verbal. Over the past several weeks, the White House has initiated a series of quiet measures intended to signal to officials in Tehran that Washington is serious about seeking a diplomatic thaw. Among the most significant was the U.S. Treasury Department's February 4th announcement that it had designated the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK) as a terrorist group under U.S. law. PJAK, a violent Kurdish separatist movement operating within Iran, has been a considerable thorn in the Iranian regime's side in recent years, and officials in Tehran have repeatedly accused the United States of sponsoring and supporting the group. The February 4th designation, then, is a clear signal from Washington that it is not doing so – and that, under certain circumstances, it is willing to work with Tehran to eradicate that threat.]
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