IRAN'S INFLUENCE IN IRAQ, REVISITED
Since last summer, the issue of Iranian activity on the territory of its western neighbor has receded from the front pages, as security in Iraq has improved. None of this, however, means that Tehran is no longer interested in what goes on within Iraq – or that its leaders have stopped testing Coalition resolve there. In recent weeks, Coalition forces have downed an Iranian drone near the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, and apprehended three operatives from Iran's feared Qods Force paramilitary unit in Diyala province. The incidents are part of a larger pattern of pervasive influence and activity on the part of Iran in the former Ba'athist state, says one military analyst. "In addition to significant economic investment and relationship building among Iraq's political parties, Iran develops influence in Iraq by providing Iraqi militants with training, shelter, money, and equipment," writes Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. As part of this plan, he notes, "Iran has been developing a covert action program in Iraq for decades, one that is open-ended, resilient, and well-funded, and that utilizes a broad range of Iraqi proxies." (Long War Journal, March 13, 2009; Washington Institute PolicyWatch, March 16, 2009; Tel Aviv Ha'aretz, March 16, 2009)
KHATAMI GETS COLD FEET
Once heralded as the savior of Iran's beleaguered "reformist" camp, former president Mohammad Khatami has proven himself to be anything but. Sources close to Khatami say that, just a month-and-a-half after throwing his hat into the ring to compete against incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for the country's top elected post, the cleric has bowed out of the race. "He has decided to withdraw... but he will back another moderate candidate who will be announced shortly," an ally of the former leader has told journalists. (Reuters, March 16, 2009)
[Editor's Note: Khatami's withdrawal has further whittled down an already-sparse field of political contenders. Just two other reformist politicians have formally declared their candidacies for the June 12th presidential election. The first is former majles speaker Mehdi Kharroubi. The second is former prime minister Mir Hossein Moussavi. Two other independent candidates - former majles representatives Akbar Alami and Ghasem Sholeh-Saadi - have also signaled their intention to run against president Ahmadinejad.]
IRAN'S ATOMIC GAME PLAN
Military officials in Israel are warning that Iran increasingly has all of the technological capability necessary to rapidly build an atomic bomb. The Islamic Republic has "crossed the technological threshold" for making such a weapon, Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin has told the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, stressing that the emergence of a nuclear arsenal in Iran is now "mainly dependent on a political decision" to do so by Iran's leaders. Tehran's strategy, according to Yadlin, is to enrich a large amount of uranium to low levels (4.5 percent or more), thereby creating a sizeable stockpile that could rapidly be enriched further to weapons-grade - a process that could take a mere matter of months. (Tel Aviv Ha'aretz, March 25, 2009)
THE ENDURING LOGIC OF NUCLEARIZATION
In recent weeks, the Obama administration's attempts to initiate a "direct, unconditional dialogue" with Iran's ayatollahs in order to convince them to give up their nuclear project have met resistance from Tehran, where officials have taken pains to emphasize that they don't view their nuclear program as a bargaining chip, but as a non-negotiable "right." The latest reminder comes from none other than former Iranian prime minister Mir Hossein Moussavi. Moussavi, now a leading challenger in the country's upcoming presidential election, has announced publicly that nuclear possession will be a "strategic objective" for the Islamic Republic, no matter who is at the helm. "I do not think any government will dare to take a step back in this regard, since people will question the decision," Moussavi said in a recent speech. "Given the long-term interest, we are obliged not to back down on this or other similar issues." (Agence France Presse, April 5, 2009)
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