SPECIAL ISSUE: A NEW IRANIAN PRESIDENT
On May 19th, Iran's hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, perished in a helicopter crash in neighboring Azerbaijan along with a number of other egime officials. In the wake of the accident, snap elections organized by the regime have yielded a surprising victor: Masoud Pezeshkian, a cardiac surgeon and comparative political unknown who ran on a reformist platform that included a relaxation of the country's morality code, greater domestic freedom of expression, and confidence-building measures with the international community. Pezeshkian beat out ultra-conservative rival Saeed Jalili, who previously served as Secretary of the Islamic Republic's Supreme National Security Council, to secure the Iranian presidency. He is set to formally take office in late July.
What will a Pezeshkian presidency augur for Iran, both domestically and internationally? There are already indicators of what could change, and what won't, under Tehran's new political management.
MORE BREATHING ROOM FOR IRANIAN SOCIETY...
During his election campaign, Pezeshkian ran on a platform of greater freedom for Iran's women. "The morality police, fines and other types of punishment must be put aside," Pezeshkian said back in June. "I don't think that we are treating [women] justly." He has also signaled the possibility of rolling back restrictions on the country’s draconian Internet policies, citing the necessity of eliminating the vibrant domestic black market in censorship circumvention tools that currently exists. In turn, some have contended that these positions, if followed when Pezeshkian formally takes office, "may revive the bipolar dynamic [of past years] between conservatives and reformists/moderates in Iranian politics." (CBS, July 9, 2024; Nikkei Asia, July 10, 2024)
...BUT NO DEVIATION FROM REVOLUTIONARY PRINCIPLES
Whatever his reformist ideas, though, Iran's new president is hardly an outlier in terms of regime ideology. In the wake of his election, Pezeshkian made a pilgrimage to the tomb of the Islamic Republic's founder, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, to "renew his allegiance to Khomeini's ideals." He has also proven himself to be a loyal servant of the country's current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, expressing his love for the cleric and indicating preemptively that he has no plans to introduce new policies at variance with those already approved by the country's religious establishment to date. (Iran International, July 6, 2024; Iran International, July 10, 2024)
A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE REGIME
While the selection of Pezeshkian was notable, so too was the lack of overall legitimacy of the political contest that brought him to power. Iranian authorities have conceded that the electoral turnout for this month's presidential race was "lower than expected." That, however, represents something of an understatement. As some analysts have noted, even according to regime statistics, the turnout was the "lowest on record," but in reality the situation is even more dire for regime credibility: "According to sources inside the country, the turnout was far lower than reported, dipping below 20 percent."
The reasons have everything to do with the rigged nature of the Iranian political system. "For millions of Iranians, there was no acceptable choice: Both candidates were approved by the Guardian Council, a 12-member vetting body, six of whom are handpicked by [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei," writes the Atlantic Council's Holly Dagres in the New York Times. "To them, as long as an octogenarian cleric and his allies continue to rule over their country, Iran can't be free." (Reuters, July 3, 2024; The Hill, July 9, 2024; New York Times, July 10, 2024)
NEW NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY WITH THE WEST?
Among Pezeshkian's principal priorities in the foreign policy realm, meanwhile, appear to be a relaunch of diplomacy with the West, specifically negotiations over Iran's potential re-entry into the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Such reengagement has long been an objective of the Biden White House, which made a revival of the deal a centerpiece of its Middle East policy. Over the past three years, however, Iran has failed to meaningfully reciprocate American overtures. But now, Iran's new president appears prepared to reconsider. To wit, Pezeshkian has signaled his intention to appoint Abbas Araghchi as foreign minister. Araghchi previously served as deputy to Javad Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister who helped originally conclude the 2015 nuclear deal. He has reportedly already begun advising Pezeshkian on interactions with world leaders. (Bloomberg, July 10, 2024)
