Iran Democracy Monitor No. 237

NO COUNTRY FOR JOURNALISTS
Despite all of the heady promises of social liberalization that accompanied the campaign of Masoud Pezeshkian, his tenure as president has so far been marked by a deepening of domestic repression within the Islamic Republic. Media freedoms provide a case in point. This year alone, the Iranian government has arrested and prosecuted at least 91 journalists, media activists and outlets, according to Defending Free Flow of Information (DeFFI). The organization, which monitors press freedom in Iran, has documented the arbitrary arrest of dozens of journalists and other media personnel, as well as seizures of their property. DeFFI has also tracked measures taken by the regime to suppress non-governmental media, including bans on travel, work, and social media.

DeFFI's findings have been corroborated by other analyses of Iran's increasingly-unfree informational environment. The International Federation of Journalists, for instance, recently released its annual report, in which it cites similar occurrences that reflect the Iranian government's systematic efforts to crack down on domestic media and speech. (Iran International, April 3, 2024)

IRAN'S CYBER-WARRIORS TARGET IRAQ
A new report from cybersecurity firm Check Point has identified a suspected Iranian state-sponsored threat actor known as APT34, or OilRig, which is behind a recent hack targeting the Iraqi government. In its campaign, APT34 deployed a new set of malware called Veaty and Spearal, which researchers said is similar to previous malware strains employed by the group. Previous reports documenting APT34's activities outline that the group primarily targets Middle Eastern countries, and is aligned with Iranian intelligence interests. "This campaign against Iraqi government infrastructure highlights the sustained and focused efforts of Iranian threat actors operating in the region," the report notes. Check Point researcher Sergey Shykevich confirmed that the new malware "is especially sophisticated and challenging to detect, revealing a troubling pattern of persistent state-linked cyber threats." (The Record, September 12, 2024)

THE LONG ARM OF THE REGIME
A great deal is known about Iran's extensive network of proxies throughout the Middle East. But the regime is expanding its global activism still further - by harnessing the services of criminal gangs and illicit groups. A new expose from the Washington Post has laid out the Islamic Republic's penchant for employing foreign criminal gangs like the Hells Angels motorcycle club) to skirt the scrutiny of Western security services and pursue political opponents. "Iran is using criminal gangs to target exiled dissidents, journalists and human rights activists in the United States, Europe and the Middle East," the paper outlines, in what it describes as "a global surge in campaigns of cross-border repression."

The strategy has a clear strategic logic. By outsourcing to criminal syndicates, the Iranian regime can conduct operations against those it deems "traitors" with relative ease amid new levels of scrutiny of Iranian intelligence agents and agencies on the part of foreign intelligence services. "We're seeing a major escalation in lethal plotting from a government that has used this tactic from the outset," confirms Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. (Washington Post, September 12, 2024)

TEHRAN FOCUSES ON ISRAEL'S EASTERN FLANK
Disturbing developments along the Jordan-Israel border are heightening worries about security and stability within the Hashemite Kingdom. Since October 7th, Israel (with the support of allies like the United States) has been working to degrade the most threatening of Iran's proxies: Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. In the meantime, however, the Iranian regime has increasingly set its sights to the country's east, on the Jordanian monarchy. According to Col. (res.) Eran Lerman of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), Iran is intensifying its use of drug networks and Muslim Brotherhood infrastructure to bring weapons into Israel and Jordan, ramping up its efforts to destabilize the monarchy and the broader region. Israeli officials are concerned that Jordanian intelligence is spread thin, but Jordanian and Israeli intelligence cooperation remains strong despite public acrimony over Israel's ongoing military offensive in Gaza. "The stability of the Kingdom (and thus the need to reduce economic and social strains) is a vital interest of both Israel and the West," Lerman wrote in a recent analysis. (JNS, September 11, 2024)

NEW IRANIAN MISSILES FOR MOSCOW...
Western officials are raising the alarm over a new shipment of ballistic missiles that has been provided to Russia by Iran. "The United States has confirmed reports that Iran has transferred shipments of Fath 360 close-range ballistic missiles to Russia, which we assess could employ them within weeks against Ukraine,” the Pentagon said in an official statement on September 10th. The impact of the delivery is potentially highly significant. The UK Ministry of Defence, for instance, has assessed that Iran's delivery "will supplement and enhance Russia's ability to conduct precision strikes against Ukrainian military or civilian infrastructure targets close to front lines." That, in turn, will make it easier for Russian forces to push still deeper into Ukraine. (U.S. Department of Defense, September 10, 2024; UK Ministry of Defence, September 13, 2024)

...AND A FRESH FRAMEWORK FOR BILATERAL COOPERATION
Meanwhile, the strategic ties between Moscow and Tehran are tightening still further. Russian officials have confirmed that they are seeking to significantly strengthen their strategic ties to the Islamic Republic. Sergei Shoigu, the current Secretary of Russia's Security Council Secretary (and former Defense Minister) has announced the "imminent conclusion" of a new treaty between the two countries. That "comprehensive agreement" has been discussed between Moscow and Tehran for some time, and while details remain scant, observers anticipate that it will expand ties between the two countries on everything from military technology to intelligence sharing. (Breaking Defense, July 1, 2024; Reuters, September 10, 2024)