Iran Democracy Monitor No. 238

ENERGY JITTERS IN TEHRAN
Amid escalating tensions between Tehran and Jerusalem in the wake of Iran's October 1st ballistic missile attack on Israel, the Islamic Republic has imposed new restrictions on the amount of gasoline available for purchase by ordinary Iranians. The new limits coincide with speculation that Iran's oil and gas infrastructure could be targeted by retaliatory strikes from Israel, which are still forthcoming. Should that happen, the effects could be potentially catastrophic - because they would deepen what is already a severe internal energy crisis, typified by shortages of natural gas, an electricity deficit, and critically low reserves of refined petroleum. Under those conditions, observers warn, additional disruptions caused by an Israeli strike could be ruinous for the country's economy, plunging Iran into hyperinflation. (Iran International, October 6, 2024)

A POLITICAL WAVE OF PARDONS
Iran's Supreme Leader is busy burnishing his domestic image. In the face of widespread domestic discontent and escalating foreign tensions, the Associated Press reports that Ali Khamenei has pardoned outright, or commuted the sentences of, nearly 3,000 prisoners currently serving time or facing punishment for things like "anti-state crimes." Of those, 59 prisoners saw their death sentences commuted to life prison terms, while some 40 nationals were pardoned outright. (Associated Press, September 20, 2024)

IRAN'S NEW PRESIDENT FACES STUDENT DISCONTENT
This summer, Massoud Pezeshkian campaigned successfully for the Iranian presidency on a platform of greater liberalization and broader personal freedoms in what many saw as an attempt to mollify a population fundamentally discontented with repressive clerical rule. But the months since Pezeshkian's assumption of power have not seen any of the liberalization promised on the campaign trail. To the contrary, regime repression has deepened and enforcement of restrictive female dress has intensified, with the country's morality police now back on the streets in force. This, in turn, has exacerbated the divide between Iran's clerical government and the country's younger generations which mobilized in the recent "woman, life, freedom" protests.

These ongoing divisions were on display during a recent speech by Pezeshkian at the University of Tehran, in which the President was heckled and interrupted by students and faculty alike. The cause of the community's ire was twofold: the regime's ongoing crackdown on academic freedom, which has seen growing numbers of students dismissed from university in recent weeks as a result of their involvement in protests, as well as growing economic strain on Iran's academic sector, which observers worry could propel both students and professors out of the country in search of economic opportunity. (Iran International, October 14, 2024)

IRAN'S BLOODY EASTERN BORDER
Relations between the Islamic Republic and its eastern neighbor, Afghanistan, have long been fraught - and the return of the Taliban to power three years ago has reignited long-standing frictions between the Sunni Islamist movement and Shi'ite Iran. Taliban authorities are now said to be investigating the deaths of dozens of Afghan migrants, allegedly at the hands of Iranian border guards. Halvash, an Iranian human rights organization reported the deaths of 300 migrants attempting to illegally enter Iran via Pakistan, prompting the Taliban's inquiry into the matter.

The border province of Sistan-Baluchistan – where the attempted crossing took place – has long been a powder-keg, made worse in recent times by a surge in the number of Afghans attempting to flee from the Taliban's return to power in Kabul. Iran and Pakistan each host millions of Afghan refugees, both documented and undocumented, and have deported hundreds of thousands back to Afghanistan over the past several years. Pakistani authorities have remained silent on the recent incident, while the Iranian ambassador to Kabul, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, has reiterated Tehran's goal of deporting all undocumented Afghans. (VOA News, October 16, 2024)