IRAN MAKES A PLAY IN EAST AFRICA
Over the past several years, Iran's clerical regime has sought to deepen its involvement and influence in Africa. Those efforts took a big step forward last month, when the Islamic Republic inked a series of new trade and cooperation deals with Sudan. The arrangements, announced by Sudan's Foreign Ministry, encompass closer coordination between Tehran and Khartoum on things like mining, banking and the production of livestock.
The new deals are the latest sign of the Islamic Republic's rapidly deepening bilateral ties to Sudan, which have ballooned since they were revived in late 2023. The Iranian regime, for instance, has become a major backer of Sudan's sitting government, headed by Prime Minister Abdulla Hamdok, in its fight for control of the country against the rebel Rapid Support Forces militia. In exchange, the Sudanese government has now reportedly relented in its longstanding opposition to the Islamic Republic's quest for a naval basing presence in Port Sudan, which is strategically located on the Red Sea.
Iran's strategy is a shrewd one. "The Red Sea is vital to the global economy, carrying 15% of global maritime trade and 12% of seaborne oil through the Suez Canal, which connects the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean," explains Tareq Alotaiba in an analysis for the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. "In previous attempts, Iran failed to secure a lasting foothold in the region. However, as Iranian and Russian military support is turning the tide of the Sudanese civil war in favor of the army, Iran is finding an opening to achieve its goal." (Bloomberg, February 13, 2025; AGSIW, March 3, 2025)
HOPELESSNESS SPREADS IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
Iran's protracted domestic decline is having a steep human toll on the country's population, as more and more Iranians lose faith in the future. The latest sign of this creeping malaise is the skyrocketing national rate of suicide, which rose by some 51% percent between 2016 and 2022. Experts have tied the figure, collated by Iran's Scientific Association for Suicide Prevention, to mounting economic difficulties and the regime's draconian social restrictions. (Iran Wire, February 14, 2025)
HOW IRAN IS GAMING "RESISTANCE"
The Iranian regime is taking its hostility to the West online. Regime authorities are reportedly poised to launch a new video game simulating – and dramatizing – warfare against Israel and other regional military conquests on the part of the Islamic Republic. Clips from the game, which is called "True Promise," were recently aired on national television, Iran International reports. It allows players to "launch missiles at shipping as Iran-allied Houthi fighters in Yemen or shell Israel as Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas." The software was apparently developed following the regime's April 2024 attack on Israel on the orders of the country's Supreme Leader, with the goal of emphasizing and celebrating the regime's military exploits. It will feature gameplay involving war scenarios in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen – culminating in a strategic attack on Israel. (Iran International, February 19, 2025)
THE REGIME'S HUMAN RIGHTS CRACKDOWN CONTINUES
A new report from the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) has documented a what the watchdog group calls a "campaign of terror" against minorities across the Islamic Republic. "The Iranian government has greatly escalated its brutal crackdown on ethnic minority groups in recent weeks, employing unlawful mass raids, violent arrests, and enforced disappearances against hundreds of members of these communities across the country in order to silence peaceful dissent," it documents. The campaign includes the mass arrest of members of the country's Arab minority in Khuzestan Province, as well as violence directed against, and the forced disappearance of, Iranian Baluchis, Kurds and Azeris.
The crackdown, activists argue, is a function of regime weakness. "Mass arrests of this kind have a history in Khuzestan and Ahvaz. They have always occurred during periods when the authorities feared increased street protests," says a spokesperson for the Karun Human Rights Organization. "These actions aim to prevent protests from emerging and spreading." Geopolitics play a role as well; according to observers, Iran's recent strategic losses in Syria have put the regime on the defensive, and turned its focus inward against potential sources of unrest. (CHRI, January 29, 2025)
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