Iran Democracy Monitor No. 243

Related Categories: Arms Control and Proliferation; Cybersecurity and Cyberwarfare; Terrorism; Warfare; Iran; Middle East; Russia

Editors: Ilan Berman and Calla O'Neil

HOW IRAN MADE RUSSIA'S DRONES MORE LETHAL
Through its domestic production of Iranian-designed drones, Russia has enhanced its ability to manufacture unmanned platforms and allowed the Kremlin to intensify its offensive against Ukraine. A new report produced by C4ADS, a defense intelligence firm, has detailed how Moscow and Tehran have forged a robust partnership in the development of unmanned aerial platforms since the two struck a deal to that effect back in 2023. "These UAVs are cheap and expendable, and the Russian military has launched over 8,000 of them against military and civilian facilities across Ukraine since the start of the conflict," The study, entitled "Airborne Axis," notes. "The logistics behind their deployment — a multi-billion-dollar effort to localize Iranian UAV production in Russia—tells the story of a new era in Russian-Iranian military collaboration and provides an unprecedented glimpse into rogue state operations."

The results have been pronounced. Ukrainian authorities cite attacks involving an average of 100 drones nightly so far in 2025. The collaboration between Moscow and Tehran also reportedly includes a covert payment network that utilizes gold transfers to evade Western sanctions. (C4ADS, May 29, 2025; Washington Post, May 29, 2025)

IRAN'S HIGH-TECH REPRESSION
The Islamic Republic is tightening its grip on Iranian society, using data analysis and surveillance to increase its security control. The effort, framed by officials as "smartification" and "psychological security," encompasses the deployment of technologies such as internet monitoring, mobile signal tracking, facial recognition, and mandatory in-home cameras. The measures follow a January 2025 resolution by the regime's Supreme Council of Cyberspace expanding regulation of online activity, are designed to suppress civil dissent. The effort appears to be driven by concerns over the prospect of renewed mass protests fueled by economic hardship and local conditions. (Iran International, May 28, 2025)

A POLITICAL MANDATE FOR ACTION AGAINST IRAN
American voters see an Iranian nuclear weapons program as a major threat, and most back the prospect of U.S. military action in order to end it. Those are the findings of a new poll by Rassmussen Reports. The May survey found that 77% of likely U.S. voters are concerned that the Islamic Republic could be developing a nuclear weapon, with 44% saying they are "very concerned." Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Republicans and half (50%) of Democrats polled indicated that they would support the United States taking military action to destroy an Iranian nuclear program. (Rassmussen, May 29, 2025)

THAT OLD TEHRAN-CARACAS CONNECTION
Strategic ties between Iran and Venezuela date back to the early 2000s, when then-presidents Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad forged a partnership based upon shared opposition to the United States. Since then, relations between the two countries have remained strong. And now, Tehran and Caracas are moving to expand these contacts still further. At a recent business forum in the Venezuelan capitol, senior officials from both countries pledged to broaden cooperation on trade and technology as a way to ameliorate sanctions. The new lash-ups include a fiber-optic plant in La Guaira, expanded Iranian insurance coverage for Venezuelan businesses, and collaboration in the health sector. (IntelliNews, June 3, 2025)

IRAN STEPS UP ITS CYBER-SPYING NEXT DOOR
An Iranian-linked cyberespionage group has targeted Kurdish and Iraqi officials in a years-long campaign, a new study has disclosed. The report, by Slovakia's ESET cybersecurity firm, identifies a suspected Iranian state-backed cyber-actor dubbed "BladedFeline" that carried out breaches of computer systems of the Kurdistan Regional Government, as well as the Iraqi central government. "The KRG's diplomatic relationship with Western nations, coupled with the oil reserves in the Kurdistan region, makes it an enticing target for Iran-aligned threat actors to spy on and potentially manipulate," ESET's researchers have laid out. "In Iraq, these threat actors are most probably trying to counter the influence of Western governments following the US invasion and occupation of the country." (The Record, June 5, 2025)

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