Iran Democracy Monitor No. 245

IRAN INVESTS IN EUROPEAN CRIME
A new investigation by SVT, Sweden's public broadcaster, reveals that Iran is recruiting Swedish criminal networks to carry out attacks on its enemies abroad. According to intelligence sources and testimonies from gang members, Tehran offered incentives, including the assassination of rivals, to Swedish gang members in exchange for carrying out attacks on Israeli interests and on Iran International, the London-based Persian-language opposition news outlet. This tactic reflects an expansion of Iran's repression toolkit: the outsourcing of violence to criminal gangs, a tactic that offers the regime both plausible deniability and expanded operational reach beyond its borders. (Iran International, June 21, 2025)

TEHRAN’S CAUCASIAN CONDUIT
The Iranian regime has found a new opening in the South Caucasus, and is steadily building ties to the government of the pro-Moscow "Georgian Dream" party in Tbilisi. That's the charge leveled in a new study by Civic Idea, a Georgian pro-democracy think tank chaired by former Georgian Defense Minister Tinatin Khidasheli. "The Georgian Dream's anti-Western foreign policy has contributed to the growing influence of regional authoritarian regimes over Georgia, including the Islamic Republic," it notes. "In recent years, diplomatic, political, and economic cooperation between the Georgian Dream government and Iran has been steadily expanding."

These new ties include an intensification of diplomatic contacts, with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze making two official state visits to the Islamic Republic last year alone. They are also reflected in a surge of Georgian imports of Iranian goods, the volume of which has nearly quintupled, to some $285 million, over the past half decade. Iranian companies are also using Georgia to bypass international sanctions, the report charges – a trend reflected in the surge of companies registered by Iranians in Georgia.

The burgeoning relationship between Tehran and Tbilisi represents a contradiction. "Among the populist promises made by representatives of Georgian Dream is the pledge to 'reset' relations with Washington," the Civic Idea study notes. "However, this raises a critical question: how does the ruling party intend to open a 'new chapter' in relations with the Trump administration while simultaneously maintaining active diplomatic and economic ties with a state that is openly hostile to the United States?" (Civic Idea, July 2025)

TEHRAN ACCELERATES ITS AFGHAN PURGE
The Iranian regime has embarked on one of the largest forced deportations in modern history, expelling over 1.1 million Afghan nationals so far this year. The campaign, which began in March, has intensified over the past month in the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, with authorities accusing Afghans of conducting espionage activities on behalf of the Jewish state. The Iranian regime has pledged to continue the deportations until all four million undocumented Afghans currently residing in Iran have been removed from its soil.

Meanwhile, border repatriation camps are buckling under the strain of mass returns, with international aid organizations warning that they can no longer meet even the most basic humanitarian needs of the deported. Those returning now face an uncertain and dangerous fate in Afghanistan under the Taliban, where the persecution of women, girls, and former government officials is widespread and often violent. (New York Times, July 7, 2025)

PERSISTENT SUPPORT FOR PROXIES
Reeling from a string of strategic losses, including targeted Israeli assassinations of military leadership and U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, Tehran is doubling down on its asymmetric tools of influence. Recent weapons seizures in Yemen and Lebanon reveal the regime's push to rearm its regional proxies, most notably the Houthis and Hezbollah. Yemeni forces backed by the country's internationally recognized government intercepted a record 750 tons of Iranian missiles and drone parts bound for the Houthis in recent weeks. In Lebanon, meanwhile, the national army seized shipments of arms, including Russian antitank missiles, smuggled across the Syrian border and destined for Hezbollah. This renewed surge in arms transfers reflects Iran's determination to ensure that its non-state partners have the ability to maintain operations against Israeli and Western targets. (Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2025)