IRGC AIMS TO STIFLE DISARMAMENT EFFORTS IN IRAQ
The Islamic Republic is working to undermine the Iraqi government's effort to bring weapons under state control. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is reportedly pressuring Iraq's armed Shi'ite militias to reject any process that would require them to surrender their arms to state authorities. The pressure is having some effect; while some of the so-called Hashd al-Shaabi, as these groups are known, have agreed to disarm, others – most notably the Iranian-sponsored Kataib Hezbollah – have not.
The Iraqi drive reflects an American priority. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has intensified pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to disarm militias currently operating outside of state control. However, analysts are skeptical of the success of the effort, and warn that Tehran has little incentive to loosen its grip on what remains of its regional proxy network. (Al Hurra, June 11, 2026)
IRAN'S CHILD LABOR CRISIS DEEPENS
Worsening economic conditions in Iran are exacting an alarming toll on the country's most vulnerable. Hassan Mousavi Chalak, head of Iran's Association of Social Workers, recently warned of the surge in child labor across the Islamic Republic, with children being put to work in slaughterhouses, livestock farms, underground workshops, and industrial factories – a dangerous reality that the regime has publicly downplayed. The consequences are severe: child laborers face health risks including malnutrition, infectious disease, and drug use, and are vulnerable to sexual exploitation and recruitment into criminal networks. Chalak's warning comes amid mounting evidence of Iran's economic deterioration, with citizens describing rising unemployment, sharp price increases on essential goods, and persistent stagnation. (Iran International, June 14, 2026)
IRAN'S OIL EXPORTS REBOUND AS DIPLOMATIC TALKS PROGRESS...
Iran's revenues from oil exports have rebounded sharply following the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, reaching volumes last seen in 2015. Since the ceasefire agreement was announced on June 15th, Iran has reportedly exported over 36 million barrels of oil and generated over $3 billion in oil revenue as a result. By contrast, estimates from May placed daily exports between 209,000-260,000 barrels – a sharp decline from pre-war levels. Experts have noted that sanctions relief and a resumption of oil exports by Iran as a result of the new MoU signed with the Trump administration will serve as a lifeline to the Iranian regime, buoying an Iranian economy under severe stress. (Iran International, June 22, 2026)
...GIVING THE IRANIAN REGIME FUNDS FOR MILITARY REBUILDING
The Iranian regime, meanwhile, is wasting no time in using those funds to reconstitute its strategic capabilities. Israel's Israel Hayom newspaper notes that most of the money generated by Iran's reinvigorated oil trade "goes to companies belonging to the Revolutionary Guard," rather than to the civilian government headed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian — enabling the bulk of those funds to flow toward "funding and rebuilding military power, the missile array, aid to regional terrorist organizations, chiefly Hezbollah, and strengthening the regime against domestic opposition."
According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the ceasefire period, with estimates indicating that Tehran could fully reconstitute its drone capability within six months. With roughly half of Iran's missile launchers reportedly still intact following U.S.-Israeli strikes, reinvigorated oil revenues could fast track the rebuilding process. (CNN, May 21, 2026, Israel Hayom, June 22, 2026)
AN ATTACK ON THE INFORMATION SPACE
Since the outbreak of war, the Islamic Republic has moved aggressively to control the flow of information out of the country. Iranian citizens and analysts have reported mounting pressure from state authorities against speaking to foreign media – particularly U.S. funded Radio Farda – as arrests and prosecutions for alleged "cooperation with the enemy" have sharply increased. Even anonymous communication with international journalists risks detention. This campaign is not new for the Islamic Republic, however. The regime has long sought to shape the narratives reaching the international community, and wartime conditions have only heightened the urgency to silence its own population. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, June 15, 2026)
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