NEW CHALLENGES FROM RUSSIA
Russia could consider the redeployment of intermediate-range nuclear missiles as part of a new Kremlin strategy to blunt American missile defense efforts and increase leverage over European nations, a high-level Russian defense official has suggested. According to United Press International (March 2), General Vladimir Vasilenko, head of the Russian Defense Ministry's Research Institute, recently told the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper that Moscow might opt out of the 1987 INF Treaty - a move that could set the stage for a Russian missile threat to European capitals of a scope not seen since the Cold War. The rationale for such a prospective move appears to be more geopolitical than practical. "Any increase in tactical or intermediate-range nuclear weapons is not going to help Russia fight Islamic radicals, ethnic conflicts, and other insurgencies," says Ariel Cohen of the Heritage Foundation. Quite simply, "Russia is staking a geo-strategic position separate from the United States and Western Europe and reverting to the Soviet era military thinking."
At the same time, Russia is making efforts to expand its sea-based ballistic missile capabilities. RIA Novosti (March 1) reports that the Russian navy has announced its "fourth generation" submarines, now in development, will be equipped with the "Bulava" sea-launched intercontinental ballistic missile. The announcement is an apparent reference to Russia's Borey-class nuclear submarines, two of which are being built at the Sevmash plant in the Arkhangelsk region and expected to be commissioned over the next two years.
TEHRAN'S ACCELERATING BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM
Even though its nuclear "file" headed to the United Nations Security Council for review, Iran is ramping up work on its strategic arsenal. Reuters (March 6), citing a new report by Western intelligence sources, has provided details of a covert Iranian military program designed to outfit the Islamic Republic's premier ballistic missile, the "Shahab-3," with nuclear warheads. The initiative, dubbed "Project 111," was first disclosed by the Washington Post in early February, and appears to be "a nuclear research effort that includes work on missile development" and a successor program to the earlier "Project 110," which was "believed to be the military arm of the country's nuclear program."
A TENUOUS BALANCE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT
A leading Australian analyst has assessed that China does not yet have the means to successfully mount an invasion of neighboring Taiwan. Professor Hugh White of the Australian National University has told The Australian newspaper (March 2) that China's 600 to 700 missiles aimed at Taiwan give it "a lot of political and strategic flexibility," but that actually crossing the Taiwan Strait and invading remains safely beyond the PRC's reach, at least for now. However, according to White, officials in Beijing "appear to be coming to the view that time is on their side" in their confrontation with Taipei.
NORTH KOREA COMES BACK INTO FOCUS
U.S. government officials are confirming that North Korea has successfully carried out fired two short-range missiles. "Indications are that North Korea launched two short-range missiles," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said in comments carried by the New York Times on March 9th. The trials, carried out within the Stalinist state's borders on March 8th, break the DPRK's self-imposed eight-year moratorium on missile testing.
The tests come on the heels of new warnings from the U.S. military that the missile threat from North Korea is growing. In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 7th, Gen. Burwell B. Bell, the commander of U.S. forces in Korea, told lawmakers that the DPRK already has more than 600 SCUD-type missiles capable of delivering "conventional or chemical munitions" throughout the entire Korean peninsula, and that "North Korea is also preparing to field a new intermediate range ballistic missile which could easily reach United States facilities in Okinawa, Guam, and possibly Alaska." Additionally, according to Bell, the DPRK's "continued development of a three-stage variant of the Taepo Dong missile, which could be operational within the next decade, would not only provide North Korea the capability to directly target the continental United States, it would also allow North Korea - the world's leading supplier of missiles and related production technologies - the ability to provide its clients with the intercontinental capability to undermine stability in other regions."
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