Missile Defense Briefing Report: No. 208

CHINESE SPACE WARFARE THREAT GROWS...
Even as it continues its diplomatic offensive to limit the deployment of American space-based defenses, Beijing has begun probing U.S. vulnerabilities in that theater. According to Defense News (week of September 25), the PRC recently fired high-powered lasers at U.S. spy satellites orbiting over its territory. Experts tell the newsweekly that the incident represents the latest effort by China to gauge its ability to neutralize U.S. space-based assets. Such efforts on the part of China, coupled with sophisticated Russian work on satellite-jamming capabilities, is "driving U.S. Air Force plans to develop new space architectures and highly classified systems," Defense News reports.

...AS INDIA LOOKS TO THE STARS
India's military priorities are poised on the brink of major redefinition. Defense News (week of September 25) reports that the Integrated Defence Staff of the Indian Defence Ministry is in the process of formulating a concept paper that is expected to define the direction of national strategy and defense spending for the South Asian state in the coming year. Among the initiatives rumored to be under consideration is the establishment of a joint space task force to oversee the creation of an integrated military space command tasked with administering space missions for the country's Air Force, Navy and Army.

JAPANESE RADAR COMES ONLINE
Amid ongoing fears over North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, Tokyo and Washington are moving to activate their missile defense alliance. The Associated Press (September 28) reports that the United States has powered up a key component of its ballistic missile partnership with Japan: the X-Band early warning radar array at Camp Shariki in northern Japan. The facility in the northern Aomori state was officially inaugurated on September 26th by U.S. Brigadier General John Seward, according to the news agency.

FEAR AND LOATHING IN MOSCOW
The Bush administration's plans for a European basing location for missile defenses continue to make waves in Moscow. Defense and Security (September 25) reports that a number of prominent Russian strategists have termed the planned deployment, most likely to take place in either Poland or the Czech Republic, a clear threat to Russian security, and are calling on the Kremlin to respond to U.S. plans by expanding its own work on "strategic arms." "The missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic will be directed against Russia and China," says Major-General Vladimir Belous (ret.), a senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Global Economy and International Relations Institute (IMEMO). "By approaching Russia's borders, the Americans are seeking to achieve their main objective: intercepting our strategic missiles at the early stage of their trajectory, when they are most vulnerable."

Russian officials also have another worry. Space & Missile Defense Report (September 25) reports that two leading Russian specialists – General Vladimir Dworkin of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Alexei Arbatov of the Carnegie Moscow Center – told a recent conference that officials in Moscow have “gotten used” to the idea of the limited missile defense capability being pursued by the Bush administration. But, the experts have warned, a more capable system, one incorporating space based anti-missile capabilities, “would be a shock” to the Kremlin and could elicit a serious response.

RUSSIA’S AGING STRATEGIC ARSENAL
Meanwhile, all does not appear to be well on the Russian front. The sorry state of the country's aging nuclear arsenal has begun to raise serious questions about the Kremlin’s capacity to maintain a second-strike capability. In its September 16th issue, Moscow’s Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozrenie cites missile designer Vladimir Buksshtab as saying that Russia’s aging “Topol” road-mobile missile complex, which has been active now for twice its guaranteed service life, shows signs of “aging, deterioration, and physical wear.” Although recent testing indicates the missiles will still perform if called upon, the present pace of rearmament suggests they are predicted to be on alert for another 30 years – a time span Buksshab calls “impracticable.” As a result, the engineer predicts, the country’s missile arsenal could see a serious reconfiguration in the near future. “[T]he composition of the Russian Federation’s land-based missile grouping may be drastically reduced by 2010. The same can be said of the nuclear triad’s sea-based component.” Buksshtab has also raised concerns over a noticeable decline in the level of effectiveness of command and control in Russia’s strategic missile complex - a development he identifies as a “powerful destabilizing factor.”