RUSSIA'S SHIFTING NUCLEAR STRATEGY
Amid growing concern in Moscow about the potential impact of a U.S. missile defense deployment in Europe, Russian strategists are retooling their country’s nuclear posture and warfighting strategy. "NATO is so close to the Russian borders nowadays that strategic bombers cannot hope to take off in case of a sudden attack (the order will take too long reaching them, and besides, they will have to be fuelled and outfitted first)," writes analyst Aleksei Vaschenko in the November 10th edition of Defense and Security. Likewise, although "[r]ailroad missile complexes posed a bona fide threat to the Americans," these systems have been largely dismantled over the past two decades thanks to the policies of Presidents Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
The result, Vaschenko concludes, is that Russia must rely on asymmetric weapons in the event of a confrontation with the United States – chief among them the use of "Super-EMI [electromagnetic impulse]." "Powerful electromagnetic impulse released by explosions affected electronic equipment, lines of communications, power networks, and radars" in previous nuclear detonations, and specialists "claim that explosion of such a device (10 megatons 300-400 kilometers above the surface) over Nebraska which is the geographic center of the United States will render all electronic gear all over the country inoperable for the period of time sufficient to prevent nuclear retaliation." Not surprisingly, writes Vaschenko, “[t]he Russian nuclear component includes Super-EMI" as a “response to American nuclear blackmail.”
A BUMPY ROAD FOR THE “BULAVA”
Not all is well in the Russian strategic arsenal, however. Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozrenie writes in its November 7th issue that a key component of the Russian strategic arsenal – the “Bulava” ship-launched ICBM – has experienced a string of test failures and mechanical mishaps that threaten to undermine the Russian military’s plans for the next-generation missile. “It was originally intended [for the military] to adopt it for operational service in 2005. Then 2007 began to be mentioned. Finally the Moscow Thermotechnical Institute's director and general designer, Yuriy Solomonov, declared that the Bulava ICBM will enter service with the Navy in 2008,” the military paper notes. “The Bulava project is no longer saving either money or time,” and continued failures with the program could render the new nuclear submarines the Kremlin plans to acquire “useless.”
IRAN’S NEWEST EXPORT
Is the Islamic Republic of Iran poised to become a major missile proliferator? In comments carried by Reuters (November 6), Yahya Rahim Safavi, commander of Iran’s elite clerical army, the Pasdaran, has disclosed that Tehran has “no prohibitions or reservations” about providing its missile systems to “neighboring and friendly countries.” Safavi’s remarks were made as part of a televised interview with Al-Alam television regarding the recent military maneuvers held by the Pasdaran in the Persian Gulf – exercises that included test launches of several of the regime’s ballistic missiles. Other regime officials have been even more emphatic; “Tehran also considers this as its duty to help friendly countries which are exposed to invasion of the Zionist regime,” Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad Reza Sheibani has told reporters in a thinly-veiled reference to Iranian arms shipments to the Hezbollah terrorist organization for use against Israel.
Missiles, however, are not Iran’s only strategic asset. “The revolutionary guards have several thousand suicidal persons, suicidal members, who have had eight years of military experience in the war,” Safavi has said. “These suicidal persons are ready to undertake suicidal operations on a high level.”
FRANCE’S NEW FIREPOWER
Reuters (November 9) reports that France has successfully carried out a test of a new nuclear-capable, next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile. With a range of 3,626 miles, the M51 has the ability to fly 50 percent farther than anything currently in the French arsenal. Developed by EU aerospace giant EADS, the missile is capable of carrying six warheads, a heavier payload than its M45 predecessor. The missile’s enhanced accuracy, meanwhile, is predicted to help reduce “collateral damage.” The submarine-launched ICBM is expected to be ready for service by 2010.
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