OBAMA'S OFFER...
Is the Obama administration walking away from its predecessor's missile defense program? According to the March 2nd edition of the New York Times, the new president sent a secret letter last month to his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, indicating that he was prepared to roll back plans for the deployment of a "third site" to America's missile defense system in Eastern Europe if Moscow would cooperate with Washington in curbing Iran. Administration officials have indicated that the proposed offer is contingent upon Moscow's ability to substantially alter Iranian behavior. “It’s almost saying to them, put up or shut up,” the Times cites one policymaker as saying. “It’s not that the Russians get to say, ‘We’ll try and therefore you have to suspend.’ It says the threat has to go away.”
Moscow, however, doesn't appear to be all that interested in such a bargain. On the same day that news of the communiqué broke in the Western media, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev explicitly rejected the idea of such a quid pro quo. “If we are talking about some sort of trade or exchange, then I can say that the question cannot be put that way – it’s not productive,” the Financial Times (March 2) reports Medvedev telling journalists.
...REVERBERATES IN EUROPE
News of the missive has sent shockwaves through Eastern Europe, where the missile defense deployment remains a very real - and contentious - political issue. The fallout has sent administration officials scrambling to repair the diplomatic damage. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, then on a tour of Europe and the Middle East, took pains to suggest that missile defense could become an "integral" feature of U.S.-European relations, the Associated Press (March 8) reports. Defense Secretary Robert Gates struck much the same chord in a March 4th speech when he told reporters in Washington that “the missiles that the Iranians are testing can reach a good part of Russia, as well as Eastern Europe and part of Western Europe,” and that the U.S. remains committed to defending its allies on the Old Continent through "a European missile defense,” the American Forces Press Service reported the same day.
A WARNING FROM RUSSIA
At least one Russian expert, meanwhile, is warning of the mounting threat from the target of America's planned European deployment. At a recent conference in Moscow, Maj. Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin, a former top Soviet arms control negotiator who now heads the Center for Strategic Nuclear Forces, outlined that "Iran is actively working on a missile development program," and warned that the Islamic Republic's growing stockpile of ballistic missiles "will most likely be able to threaten the whole of Europe" in the near future. But the more acute danger, according to Dvorkin, is that Tehran could marry that capability with its burgeoning nuclear program – with major geopolitical results. "The real threat is that Iran, which is already ignoring all resolutions and sanctions issued by the UN Security Council, will be practically 'untouchable' after acquiring nuclear-power status, and will be able to expand its support of terrorist organizations, including Hamas and Hezbollah," RIA Novosti (March 12) reports him as saying.
NORTH KOREA'S MISSILE TEST, AND THE JAPANESE RESPONSE
Ever since North Korea announced plans to carry out a test of a multi-stage missile - termed by Pyongyang as a peaceful "satellite" launch - several weeks ago, speculation has run rampant at home and abroad about the potential responses being contemplated by the Obama administration. But now, one of America's staunchest missile defense allies has stepped forward with an ultimatum of its own. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has publicly condemned the planned firing, stressing that any ballistic missile activity at all from the DPRK would constitute a violation of a 2006 UN Security Council resolution, while officials in his government have warned that a North Korean launch would, under certain circumstances, be intercepted. Tokyo will "deal with anything that is flying toward us," Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada has confirmed in comments carried by Fox News. "We are preparing for any kind of emergency."
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