POSITIVE THINKING IN POLAND
Since taking office, the Obama administration has signaled in no uncertain terms that it intends to scrap Bush-era plans for a European leg to America's missile defense architecture. At least one potential partner in that project, however, is still expecting deeper missile defense cooperation with Washington. "We expect the Patriot battery to be deployed on Polish soil by the end of 2009, as initially agreed with the Americans," Poland's Deputy Defense Minister, Stanislaw Komorowski, has told Reuters (May 18) in an interview. "This is important for Polish public opinion." Komorowski and other Polish officials are also looking forward to stronger defense ties with the U.S., irrespective of the ultimate disposition of the so-called "third site." "Regardless of the decision, President Obama has said other cooperation with Poland, including strategic projects such as modernisation of our armed forces, will definitely be continued," Komorowski points out.
That cooperation is seen by the Polish government as an essential stepping stone in its defense modernization plans - plans designed in part to address the potential strategic threat posed by a rising Russia. "At present, we cannot afford to buy Patriot batteries because of budget constraints but by 2013 we will consider starting to acquire that kind of theatre missile defence system for our armed forces," says Komorowski.
IN IRAN, PLAYING OFFENSE...
Iran's powerful clerical army is expanding its missile power in the Persian Gulf. The Jerusalem Post reports in its May 12th edition that Iran's Revolutionary Guard have commenced the deployment of mobile surface-to-air and surface-to-sea missile launchers along the Strait of Hormuz and in the country's interior. The missiles, revealed to a Saudi newspaper by an Iranian military source, are said to have been positioned in recent weeks as part of Iranian preparations for a possible military strike over its nuclear program.
...WHILE THINKING DEFENSE
Iran's growing focus on ballistic missiles is not strictly offensive, however. The Jerusalem Post (May 10) reports that lingering doubts in Tehran over Russia's willingness to ultimately provide it with the advanced S-300 system have led policymakers in Tehran to approach the People's Republic of China about acquiring substitute air defense systems. China's HongQi-9 - an air defense system with components "borrowed" from Russia's S-300 and the U.S. Patriot - is currently said to be under consideration by the Iranian military.
IRAN'S ANTI-NMD PLAN
Iran's missile moves, meanwhile, are being watched with growing concern in Jerusalem. According to the May 18th Jerusalem Post, Israeli experts believe that the Islamic Republic is in the midst of a multi-year defense-industrial plan - one that could provide it with as many as 500 missile launchers and more than 1,000 missiles by the middle of the next decade. "The Iranians are making great efforts to obtain a significant number of missiles," says Tal Inbar, the head of the Space Research Center at the Fisher Brothers Institute in Herzliya. "They already talk about how one of the ways they will overcome the missile defense systems is by firing salvos of missiles."
STRATEGIC POSTURE COMMISSION OFFERS MODEST VISION OF MISSILE DEFENSE
The United States should continue work on missile defenses in the years ahead, but limit its deployments to those systems that protect against rogue state threats and do not upset the strategic balance with Russia and China, a top Congressional panel has advised. "For more than a decade the development of U.S. ballistic missile defenses has been guided by the principles of (1) protecting against limited strikes while (2) taking into account the legitimate concerns of Russia and China about strategic stability," details the final report of the Strategic Posture Commission, headed by former Defense Secretary William Perry and former Energy and Defense Secretary James Schlesinger. "These remain sound guiding principles. Defenses sufficient to sow doubts in Moscow or Beijing about the viability of their deterrents could lead them to take actions that increase the threat to the United States and its allies and friends... Current U.S. plans for missile defense should not call into question the viability of Russia’s nuclear deterrent."
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