IRAN AND THE S-300 ISSUE
In the deepening international stand-off over Iran's nuclear program, the Islamic Republic's quest for advanced air- and missile defense technologies could play a decisive role. "For years now, Tehran has been working hard to acquire sophisticated Russian antiaircraft missiles that would make it far tougher for Israeli planes to stage a successful attack on Iranian nuclear facilities," Christian Caryl wrote on October 2nd in the online edition of Foreign Policy magazine. That system is the S-300, an advanced interceptor array believed to be superior to the U.S. Patriot. Russia signed a deal to deliver units of the S-300 to Iran back in 2007, but has so far refrained from doing so as a result of pressure from both Israel and the United States. But if it does, it could turn out to be a game-changer: "At minimum the S-300 would force the Israelis to take extensive countermeasures, like using aircraft with jammers, aircraft with anti-radiation missiles, drones with decoys -- this whole three-ring circus that you would need to get past it," globalsecurity.org's John Pike says.
Russia's restraint, meanwhile, appears to be slipping amid worries that it could be outmaneuvered by alternate suppliers such as China. Despite its previous hesitance, Russia now "plans to further implement the military-technical cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran in strict accordance with existing legislation and its international obligations," the Fars News Agency (October 23) reports Russia's Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation as saying. If it does not, the agency statement said, "it would mean becoming an unreliable partner (and) give potential competitors a chance to take advantage of the situation."
U.S.-JAPANESE COOPERATION FACES THE FINANCIAL AX
The vibrant missile defense partnership between Washington and Tokyo is facing a financial crisis of sorts. Reuters (October 21) reports that Japan's new Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government is placing new constraints on cooperation with the U.S. as part of a government-wide fiscal belt-tightening that has been put in motion since the LDP's electoral victory in August. The news was conveyed to Secretary of Defense by Japan's new Defense Minister, Toshimi Kitazawa, who informed Gates that the bilateral missile defense agenda mapped out by the two countries for the coming year could remain unfulfilled. "The first half of the missile defense plan is complete, but we are considering what to do about the remaining half," Kitazawa has reportedly said. "I understand how important missile defense is, but the financial authorities are taking a harsh view. However, I want to overcome this somehow."
"JUNIPER COBRA" PREPARES FOR MIDEAST CONFLICT
The United States and Israel are holding joint military exercises designed to simulate an attack on Israel from medium- and long-range missiles, Yediot Ahronot (October 22) reports. The three-week exercise, dubbed "Juniper Cobra" and intended to test interoperability between U.S. and Israeli missile defense systems in the event of a regional conflict, began in late October. "The exercise will include various scenarios fitting the threats Israel faces," says Brig.-Gen. Doron Gavish, head of the Israel Air Force's Air Defense Division. The maneuvers will include three stages, according to the Israeli daily: "A joint-tactical forces drill, simulations and testing the new Patriot surface-to-air missile system."
SLOWLY BUT SURELY, OBAMA MISSILE DEFENSE PLAN GAINS GROUND
"New Europe" appears to be coming around to the Obama administration's missile defense plans. The White House's mid-September termination of Bush-era plans for ground-based interceptors and radars in Poland and the Czech Republic were initially greeted with dismay in Warsaw and Prague. But Vice President Joe Biden's recent tour of Europe found allies on the Old Continent singing a different tune. The Czech Republic is "ready to participate in the building of such a new architecture," the Associated Press (October 23) reports Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer as saying. Officials in Poland are likewise warming to White House plans; Biden's visit to Warsaw reportedly yielded an official endorsement of the Administration's revamped plan, which entails the deployment of near-term sea-based defenses to defend U.S. allies from the medium-range ballistic missile threat from Iran.
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