Missile Defense Briefing Report: No. 264

U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE: DELIBERATELY MINIMALIST?
America's missile defenses need to be limited in scope, lest they prompt adversaries abroad to beef up their strategic arsenals in response, a top military official has said. Reuters (November 10) reports General Kevin Chilton, the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) as saying that an American missile defense system that is robust and versatile could be counterproductive. "We have to be cautious with missile defense," Chilton - the Pentagon's top flag officer in charge of strategic forces - is reported to have told a conference in Washington, DC. "Missile defense can be destabilizing depending on how you array it." At issue is the potential response that America's competitors, like Russia and China, may have to a comprehensive defense, which "might encourage them to in fact double, triple, quadruple their current nuclear forces [because] they would feel that their deterrent was no longer viable."

CHINESE MISSILE CAPABILITIES CHANGING PENTAGON'S ASIAN CALCULUS
China now has a new tool in its arsenal to discourage U.S. warships from approaching waters that it claims as its own. Bloomberg (November 17) reports that China's military has paired a new land-based, anti-ship ballistic missile, which has a range of 900 miles, with an innovative ocean surveillance system that can spot U.S. ships up to 1,860 miles away. Though Chinese general Xu Caihou claims that the missile system is merely "a limited capability," Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said that such developments "could threaten America’s primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific -- particularly our forward bases and carrier strike groups.” The missile has already disrupted the U.S. Navy's operations in East Asia, as it has been "specifically designed" to combat American carrier strike groups; The U.S. Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Gary Roughead, has said that the development of the missile was one of the factors contributing to his decision to reduce production of the DDG-1000 Destroyer program, as those ships have no missile defense capabilities.

MORE AEGIS SHIPS ON THE HORIZON
The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency has announced plans to integrate six new vessels into the nation's missile defense fleet. According to the November 15th edition of the Navy Times, five ships from Norfolk, Virginia and Mayport, Florida will receive upgrades to their ballistic missile defense capabilities in 2012. The improvements are part of plans by the Department of Defense to have a total of 27 Aegis-capable vessels available and deployed by 2013.

THE PRC PLANS FOR CONFLICT IN SPACE
The United States and China are destined to compete over space control and space dominance. That, at least, is the view of one leading Chinese military official. The November 3rd Financial Times cites General Xu Quliang, China's air force chief, as saying that a conflict between the U.S. and PRC in space is "inevitable." "Competition between military forces is developing towards the sky and space, it is extending beyond the atmosphere and even into outer space," Xu said in comments carried by state news agencies. "This development is a historical inevitability and cannot be undone... As the air force of a peace-loving country, [we] must forge a sword and a shield capable of winning peace.” China's foreign ministry has subsequently disavowed General Xu's remarks, reiterating Beijing's commitment to "the peaceful use of outer space" in an official communiqué.

RETHINKING MISSILE DEFENSE IN JAPAN
Is Japan's new DPJ government reversing course on missile defense? Since taking office this fall, the new administration in Tokyo has taken a much more muted approach to the issue of missile defense - an about-face that some believe is rooted in the DPJ's eagerness for warmer ties with China. But such a notion is "shortsighted," cautions Claremont Institute president Brian Kennedy in the November 9th edition of the Wall Street Journal Asia. "Economic interests between the two nations may be paramount for now," he writes. "But the Japanese must continue to build robust defenses. Otherwise it will not be possible to build a strategic relationship between the two over the longer term in which Japan is not merely the junior partner but a supplicant to Beijing."