Missile Defense Briefing Report: No. 294

Related Categories: Missile Defense; East Asia; Europe; Iran; Middle East; Russia

RUSSIA TO BOLSTER NUCLEAR SUB FLEET
While abiding by the provisions of the New START treaty signed with the U.S. in late 2010, Russia has nonetheless been able to augment its nuclear forces considerably - most recently through plans to deploy two additional submarines with nuclear launch capability. By 2018, the Kremlin reportedly will possess eight additional such submarines, further bolstering its already formidable nuclear deterrent. Moreover, a number of the new vessels reportedly will be stationed below the thick ice of the Artic, rendering them more difficult to detect. (Voice of Russia, January 24, 2012)

SEARCHING FOR THE ARROW IN SEOUL
The U.S. and Israel are could soon sell the jointly-developed Arrow missile defense system to an eager new client: South Korea. The Arrow, jointly developed by the Boeing Company and Israel Aerospace Industries, is poised to be sold to Seoul in a potential $1 billion deal that would be overseen by the U.S. government. South Korea, which faces an ongoing missile and nuclear threat from the Stalinist regime to ist north, has emerged as a key missile defense client of the United States. However, the proposed Arrow sale is significant, insofar as it represents the first sale of the system - originally developed for the defense of Israel - to friendly third nations. (Defense News, January 30, 2012)

THE LATEST FLASH POINT FOR EUROPEAN DEFENSE: ISRAEL
Last Fall, the government of Turkey officially agreed to host early warning radars associated with Europe's emerging missile defense architecture. But the system, which is intended first and foremost as a hedge for the Continent against Iran's growing strategic capabilities, remains a political flashpoint. The latest furor stems from Turkish concerns over Israel's possible access to data from the European system. The strategic partnership between Turkey and Israel has waned significantly over the past several years, while Turkey's political and economic ties with Iran have grown - leaving Ankara in a delicate position vis-a-vis its European missile defense commitments.

U.S. officials, however, are working hard to assuage Ankara's concerns. Key military leaders have made clear that the radar, stationed some 400 kilometers from the Iranian border, will be operated solely by U.S. personnel. NATO officials have done much the same; the Alliance's Secretary General, Anders Fogh-Rasmussen, recently told Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davatoglu that "third countries" such as Israel would explicitly be excluded from receiving the data provided by the system. (Defense News , January 31, 2012; Istanbul Zaman, February 17, 2012)

JITTERS IN JERUSALEM OVER IRAN'S MISSILE REACH
Amid the deepening international stand-off over Iran's nuclear progress, the Iranian regime's expanding ballistic missile arsenal is garnering new international attention. Israeli Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon recently used the prominent pulpit of the Herzliya Conference to provide new (and disturbing) details of Iran's ballistic missile advances. Iran, Ya'alon laid out, is developing a solid propellant intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers - a capability that would significantly augment the Islamic Republic's existing arsenal, and allow it to hold targets in Europe and even the United States at risk.

Other Israeli officials have echoed this assessment. Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz told CNBC in late February that Iran has invested billions of dollars in the development of an ICBM capability against Europe and the United States, and could field such a capability in as little as "2-3 years." (Jerusalem Post, February 2 and February 22, 2012)