Missile Defense Briefing Report: No. 297

A STEP BACKWARD FOR NORTH KOREA
North Korea's long-anticipated "satellite" launch - widely believed to be a trial run for its intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities - has ended in failure, with the country's latest multistage rocket exploding and falling into the Yellow Sea approximately 80 seconds after launch. However, experts have cautioned that although North Korea’s latest launch was not successful, DPRK scientists can still glean useful information from the launch failure.

So could others. Conspicously, the North Korean satellite launch was attended by a delegation of some 12 Iranian rocket scientists. Iran has successfully placed a satellite in orbit, and North Korea has conducted successful nuclear tests, so U.S. officials fear future collaboration between the two countries on strategic capabilities. International experts concur; according to Baek Seung-joo, a senior researcher at South Korea's Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, “There is the high possibility they sell nuclear technology to each other. At least their people exchange information.” (Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2012;The Diplomat, April 16, 2012; Christian Science Monitor, April 18, 2012)

POTENTIAL ASIAN MISSILE SHIELD IRKS CHINA...
North Korea's expanding missile program has prompted the Obama administration to consider plans for an Asian missile shield – and raised concerns in Beijing in the process. In recent talks with U.S. allies in the Asia pacific, U.S. Assistant Defense Secretary Madelyn Creedon put forth the idea of modeling the potential system after the European Phased Adaptive Approach now being erected in cooperation with NATO - a system that combines land- and sea- based missile defense capabilities to defend against the missile threat from Iran. PRC officials have bridled at the idea, however. The Chinese Foreign Ministry's Asian Affairs chief, Luo Zhaohui, warned that "building a missile defense system in the Asia-Pacific region will have negative effects on global and regional strategic stability, and go against the security needs of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region." (Global Security Newswire, April 12, 2012)

...AS SEOUL FLIRTS WITH PARTICIPATION
Countries in Asia are watching the debate closely. To date, for example, officials in Seoul have been cool to U.S. offers of collaboration on a joint Asian missile defense system due in part to Chinese sensitivity on the subject. Still, South Korea in particular is a prime contender for participation, because of the strategic threat posed by North Korea's Stalinist regime. The DPRK's recent (albeit failed) satellite launch could lead South Korean officials to reconsider - and to sign on to the planned ROK anti-missile system, which would incorporate Israeli radar components and be capable of intercepting low altitude ballistic missile threats. Notably, however, the system - at least as currently envisioned - would not provide adequate protection for South Korea against an attack from the DPRK. (Seoul Hankyoreh, April 16, 2012)

RUSSIAN MISSILES IN KALININGRAD?
For years, Russia has voiced its concerns over the emerging U.S.-led missile defense system in Europe, but never taken any action - until now. According to Russian national newspapers, the Kremlin has followed through on its threats of "retaliation" in response to U.S. missile defense efforts by placing road mobile S-400 systems in its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad. The still- unverified placement, if true, would be of significant concern to nearby Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia, whom Moscow has in the past threatened with short-range missiles. Estonian President Toomas Ilves has issued a statement to NATO allies, urging the Alliance to expand its missile defense plans to include areas that are likely to be under Russian threat. "We would very much like the allies who have proposed this measure not to leave this area with less security (than before) thanks to an allied proposal to defend all of Europe against a potential Iranian attack," Ilves said. (Global Security Newswire, April 18, 2012)