Missile Defense Briefing Report: No. 318

NATO MISSILE SHIELD TAKING SHAPE IN ROMANIA
Construction on the new Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense site has begun in Deveslu, Romania. Slated to be operational by 2018, the site is expected to serve as a launching point for SM-3 interceptors as part of Europe's evolving missile defense architecture, which has been spearheaded by the U.S. The development, however, is likely to draw increased criticism from Russia - which has long held that U.S. and European missile defense development constitutes a threat to its strategic deterrent. Officials in Washington, meanwhile, have emphasized the importance of the move; “What we are initiating here today is a powerful and tangible manifestation of our solemn commitment to mutual security in Europe,” Jim Miller, the Pentagon's Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, told reporters. (Defense News, October 28, 2013)

RUSSIA TAKES AIM AT THE ASIAN MISSILE SHIELD
The foreign and defense ministers of Russia and Japan met recently in Tokyo for consultations on a variety of topics, Japanese involvement in U.S. missile defense efforts in Asia prominent among them. The Kremlin, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu outlined to his Japanese counterparts, believes that the deployment of anti-missile assets as part of U.S. plans for the region could lead to a "possible destruction of the strategic balance of power in the Asia-Pacific." But Russia's concerns aren't shared in Tokyo. According to Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, “the lynchpin of Japan’s defense policy remains its union with the U.S., and there will be no changes in this respect.” (Moscow RIA Novosti, November 2, 2013)

REPORT: PYONGYANG ON THE ROAD TO ICBM CAPABILITY
A new analysis published on "38 North," the website of Johns Hopkins University’s U.S.-Korea Institute, claims that North Korea is making progress towards a first generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The analysis is based on satellite imagery comparing the mock-up of the DPRK's KN-08 road mobile ICBM displayed in parades in 2012 and 2013, respectively, in addition to information gleaned from Pyongyang's recent, successful satellite launch. The report, authored by non-proliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis and aerospace engineer John Schilling, states that “almost all of the configurations examined would be able to deliver a light, first-generation nuclear warhead at least as far as Seattle.” But the authors concede that, due to a lack of testing, the missile is still months or years away from deployment. (Defense News, November 5, 2013)

TURKEY LOOKS EAST FOR MISSILE DEFENSE...
The controversy surrounding Turkey’s decision to purchase a Chinese missile defense system continues to deepen. In the most recent development, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has defended the buy, claiming it to be driven by "objective criteria" and not a "political or ideological dimension.” NATO and U.S. have opposed the sale, however, worried about interoperability with existing allied missile defense systems, as well as potential Chinese access to sensitive technologies. (Washington Times, November 18, 2013)

...WHILE U.S. ATTEMPTS TO SWEETEN DEAL
American defense contractors, meanwhile, are sensing an opportunity. U.S. firms - responding to statements from Ankara that the deal with Beijing has not been finalized - have stepped up their bids to provide Turkey with an alternative. "There are internal discussions going on about improving the Patriot offer," says one source familiar with the current talks underway between Washington and Ankara. There is speculation that a new American offer could include interceptors more comparable with the Chinese bid, continual technical and maintenance support, the ability to co-develop, and a more competitive price. (Reuters, November 12, 2013)

GCC MEMBERS CONSIDER PATRIOT PURCHASE
Amid negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, interest in missile defenses in the Gulf remains strong. Both Kuwait and Qatar are currently said to be pondering purchases of the Patriot missile defense system, with U.S. defense contractors anticipating that a deal will be concluded “fairly quickly.” Despite - or perhaps because of - the recent warming of relations between Tehran and Washington, defense spending has been on the rise in the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also said to be potential buyers of the system, as regional states look for strategic responses to Iran's nuclear effort. (Aviation Week, November 20, 2013)