January 11:
The nascent natural gas cartel masterminded by Russia last year could soon make its first major market move. China’s Xinhua news agency reports that the next meeting of the emerging grouping – which is being dubbed the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, or GECF – will include discussions of possible gas swaps between founding members Qatar, Iran and Russia. "Gas swaps will be the issue of discussion for the troika at the next GECF meeting", Iran's representative to OPEC, Mohammad-Ali Khatibi, has confirmed to reporters.
Is a thaw between Russia and NATO on the horizon? Five months after Russia’s incursion into Georgia led to a breakdown of high-level contacts between the Kremlin and the Atlantic Alliance, America’s top military official in Europe appears to see more normalized relations – and renewed tactical cooperation – on the horizon. NATO plans to “continue to engage” with Russia in hopes of mending frayed strategic ties, U.S. Army General John Craddock, the NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe (SACEUR), has told reporters in comments carried by the Moscow Times. A “thaw” in the relationship, Craddock points out, will allow the two sides to “revisit” avenues of potential cooperation, ranging from cooperative military exercises to a reestablishment of regular top-level diplomatic dialogue. The Times reports that NATO has already proffered to Russia the possibility of low-level naval exercises in the Mediterranean, but has so far received no response.
January 12:
Nearly two weeks after its decision to cut off gas supplies via Ukraine left much of Eastern Europe in the cold and the dark, Russia has taken the first step in renewing regular energy deliveries to Europe via its former satellite. According to the International Herald Tribune, a new agreement signed in Paris by EU officials and Gazprom deputy chief Alexander Medvedev paves the way for the Russian natural gas monopoly to resume regular shipments to Europe. The deal, a product of pressure from skittish EU officials impacted by the supply disruption, provides a framework for “pipeline monitoring” that would ensure the security of Russia’s supply to Europe – addressing the Kremlin’s claims that Ukraine has been illicitly siphoning off energy intended for European markets. Notably, however, the agreement does not solve the dispute between Moscow and Kyiv over the price of natural gas, the root cause of the current conflict.
As part of their expanding military ties, Russia and India will soon hold naval wargames in South Asia. According to the Times of India, the planned “Indra” exercises, which are to take place during the last week of January, will include six Russian warships and are aimed at increasing military readiness between the two countries in the wake of the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks.
January 13:
The Wall Street Journal reports that, just a day after it was signed, a new agreement guaranteeing Russian energy supplies to Europe has unraveled, with no new natural gas deliveries in sight. At issue appears to be Gazprom’s decision to resume supplies as agreed-upon, but to route them via Ukraine in such a way as would force Kyiv to shut off energy to its own citizens in order to make good on deliveries to Europe. "Russia is deliberately complicating the situation," energy analyst Mikhail Korechemkin tells the paper. "They sent the gas to the wrong terminal."
January 15:
Yet another Russian oligarch is making economic inroads in London. The Times of London reports that billionaire Alexander Lebedev, a high-profile Russian billionaire and former KGB agent, is renewing his bid to buy a seventy-five percent stake in London’s ailing Evening Standard newspaper. An earlier offer by Lebedev, who – along with former Russian president Mikhail Gorbachev, already owns the liberal newspaper Novaya Gazeta – was rejected last month by the Standard’s current owner, Viscount Rothermere. However, hard economic times are forcing Rothermere to sell, and Lebedev has signaled that he is still interested. The Russian oligarch is billing the move as a moral – rather than a market – venture. “This is not my way to make money, but I’d like to explain to the public that newspapers are something they should love and cherish,” the Times cites him as saying.
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