Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1638

Related Categories: Democracy and Governance; Caucasus

June 5:

After next year, Russia's worsening economic fortunes will force the Kremlin to dramatically increase its dependence on international creditors. RIA Novosti cites Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin as saying that Russia's international borrowing will exceed $10 billion after 2010, because the country's stabilization fund "will no longer be there." Near-term economic figures are proving to be equally grim. Russia's foreign debt increased by nearly 8 percent between January and May of this year, and currently totals $41.5 billion. The country's budget deficit, meanwhile, is projected to reach as much as 9 percent of GDP by year's end.


June 6:

Another killing has rocked Russia's turbulent Dagestan region. Australia's The Age newspaper reports that a sniper has assassinated the head of the region's interior ministry, as well as one other ministry official. Lieutenant General Adilgerei Magomedtagirov was attending the wedding of a colleague's daughter when he was shot and killed. It was not immediately clear whether the assassination was orchestrated by criminal elements or Islamist radicals.

Magomedtagirov's killing, analysts say, is another sign that the already-unruly region is descending into even deeper instability. "There's been a vacuum of power" in the government of regional president Mukhu Aliyev, Novaya Gazeta's Yulia Latynina has noted. "There's been an unbelievable growth in murders. Dagestan is heading down a one-way street."


June 9:

In the wake of recent unrest in Dagestan and Chechnya, the Kremlin is recommitting itself to greater security in the North Caucasus. The latest sign of Moscow's stiffening stance, the Agence France Presse reports, is an impromptu visit to Dagestan by Dmitry Medvedev - and some harsh words from the Russian head of state. "This is extremism being supplied to us from abroad when various psychos come to crap on our territory," Medvedev told officials in the regional capital of Makhachkala in televised remarks. "The work to bring about order, destroy the terrorist rabble should be continued."

Vladimir Putin’s “United Russia” party has suffered a stinging defeat in the Volgograd region. Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports that the pro-Kremlin party failed to secure even one seat in local elections for the Mikhailovsk Municipal Duma. Out of the twenty one deputy seats, ten went to the Communist Party and the rest were distributed among independent candidates. The poor showing, says political scientist Dmitry Savelyev, demonstrates the declining popularity of the party, and that it can "no longer dominate" regional politics without significant administrative resources.


June 10:

The Russian government is rethinking its strategy toward the World Trade Organization. According to the Moscow Times, Russian premier Vladimir Putin announced a radical shift in his country's long-standing bid to join the WTO when he disclosed that the Kremlin planned to abandon its unilateral approach in favor of a cooperative effort with Kazakhstan and Belarus. The three countries reportedly now hope to enter the organization as a "united customs union." The shift in strategy comes amid mounting frustration in Moscow over what Russian officials see as a biased and drawn out WTO accession process.