Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1685

Related Categories: Democracy and Governance; Missile Defense; Iran; Russia

July 12:

For the first time, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has publicly acknowledged the possibility that Iran’s nuclear ambitions may include the acquisition of atomic weaponry. According to the BBC, President Medvedev recently cautioned a group of ambassadors at a Kremlin meeting that “Iran is moving closer to possessing the potential which in principle could be used for the creation of nuclear weapons.” Medvedev's comments reverse the long-held position of the Russian government, a traditional ally of the Islamic Republic, that there is no evidence to conclude that Tehran is pursuing the "bomb."

Russian authorities have announced the arrest of six would-be female suicide bombers in the southern region of Dagestan, near Chechnya. The area, reports the New York Times, was the home of the two suicide bombers responsible for the attacks on the Moscow metro this past March. The women arrested ranged in age from 15 to 29 years old, and four were reportedly widows who had lost husbands in “security operations” carried out by the Russian state. All had written “farewell letters” as they prepared for their missions, and were found in possession of suicide belts and weaponry.

The Kremlin is reiterating its opposition to weapons in space - and to qualitative improvements to American missile defense. "We stand against unilateral approaches to missile defense issues and against the placement of weapons in space," RIA-Novosti reports Russian President Dmitry Medvedev telling a recent meeting of Russian ambassadors in Moscow. The declaration is a restatement of Moscow's longstanding opposition to America's placement of weapons in space, including the potential deployment of space-based missile defenses briefly contemplated by the Bush administration. Two years ago, as part of its opposition, Russia teamed with China to propose an international treaty limiting the potential uses of space for weapons staging of any kind. That diplomatic effort, however, has not gained significant traction to date.


July 14:

UN sanctions against Iran have seriously impacted international investment in Iran’s energy sector, but do not appear to have blocked it entirely. Russia’s support for the most recent round of international sanctions has stalled state involvement with the Islamic Republic, Reuters reports, but state-controlled companies have not all felt the same restrictions. Energy companies Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, and LUKOIL all entered into agreements with Iran to develop its oil and gas fields prior to the latest round of sanctions, and though LUKOIL has declared “a halt to its gasoline exports to fuel-hungry Iran,” Gazprom has since declared its intention to invest in both the Azar and South Pars oilfields. Russian experts caution that their country must maintain a level of involvement with Iran, and justify such contacts on diplomatic grounds; “The last thing the U.S. would actually want is for Tehran to end up only speaking to Beijing because that would limit U.S. backdoor access to Tehran,” the news agency cites an executive as saying.

After two years, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's campaign against corruption is faltering. While anti-corruption was one of his main priorities upon entering office two years ago, President Medvedev recently acknowledged that “No one is happy with our actions against corruption.” According to the Telegraph, Medvedev attributes the failure of judicial and democratic reforms, which have been called “superficial,” on the unwillingness of government officials to carry out his orders. The cost of corruption (estimated at $300 billion in bribes alone last year) has been repeatedly fingered by international investors as a barrier to economic involvement in Russia.


July 15:

According to State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov, the new START treaty recently signed by Moscow and Washington could be ratified by the lower house of Russia's parliament as early as November. The document, which requires both Russia and the United States to reduce stores of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles by a third, is now being debated within the Duma as part of efforts to assuage a “number of doubts” among Russian parliamentarians about the agreement, reports the Voice of Russia. Nonetheless, officials are expressing confidence in the passage of treaty; “the State Duma plans to honor the agreement of the U.S. and Russian presidents on simultaneous ratification,” Gryzlov has said.

[Editor's Note: Dominated by Russian premier Vladimir Putin's United Russia party, the State Duma has become little more than a rubber stamp for Kremlin policies. As such, the chances of real opposition to governmental initiatives such as New START are today exceedingly remote.]