Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1686

Related Categories: Arms Control and Proliferation; Democracy and Governance; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; Intelligence and Counterintelligence; China; Europe; Russia

July 16:

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev is poised to sign into law a bill dramatically expanding the powers of the FSB. According to the New York Times, the draft law, which has already been passed by the State Duma, grants Russia's principal domestic intelligence service the ability to “officially warn” citizens believed to be on the brink of committing a crime - ostensibly as a measure to prevent future crimes. Critics, however, warn that the new law could be used to suppress dissidents as easily as actual criminals — a common practice utilized by its predecessor, the KGB, in the days of the Soviet Union.

The version of the law now facing review in the Federation Council, Russia's upper house of Parliament, has already undergone significant edits from earlier drafts, which proposed punishments for those who ignored FSB warnings, and granted permission for the FSB to “publish its warnings in the media and to summon citizens to FSB offices to be warned.” When questioned about his support for the bill, President Medvedev surprised experts by taking credit for its development.


July 17:

Moscow and Beijing are seeking new levels of military cooperation in the missile defense arena. United Press International reports that a draft agreement on upgraded Sino-Russian military ties has been submitted to the State Duma for approval. If approved, the deal would “create a mechanism for cooperative, bilateral notifications of ballistic missile and carrier rocket launches.” The pact was originally signed by Russian and Chinese leaders in October 2009.

Russia is continuing to press for a relaxation of visa requirements for travel to Europe. Itar-TASS reports that, at a recent meeting of the 56-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov drew “special attention to the need to liberalize visa procedures,” based upon the belief that “free travel is a necessary part of cooperation within the OSCE.” Moscow, moreover, is leading by example; in recent months, the Kremlin has eased restrictions on visa procedures for travelers from the European Union and the former Soviet bloc states.


July 18:

Russian and Bulgarian officials have signed a deal to fast-track construction of the South Stream pipeline across Bulgarian territory. Reuters reports that, once built, the energy route could transfer up to 63 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually to central and southern Europe. Designed to bypass Ukraine, the project was delayed a year by Bulgarian officials, until Moscow agreed to lower gas prices for Bulgaria. The portion of the line that runs through Bulgarian territory will reportedly be a 50/50 joint venture between the two states, with the official deal expected by February of 2011. Current plans project the pipeline to be operational by 2015.


July 20:

The Russian government is planning a major expansion of its defense acquisitions. According to the St. Petersburg Times, the Russian Defense Ministry has announced that its budget for arms purchases could increase by about half, to $656 billion, this decade. Current Kremlin defense acquisition plans call for Russia to purchase “70 fifth-generation fighter jets, 20 Ruslan heavy-lift cargo aircraft and 1,000 helicopters” between 2011 and 2020.

For the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian arms exports are expected to total more than $9 billion for the year. That revenue dwarfs the $8.5 billion reaped by Russia from arms sales in 2009, according to Reuters. Among the notable deals expected this year is the provision of nearly 100 battle tanks for the regime of Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez.