March 29:
Over the past decade, in spite of an economic boom and frenzied Kremlin efforts to expand fertility, the Russian population has experienced a precipitous decline, a new nationwide census has noted. According to Reuters, an October 2010 survey carried out by Russia's Federal Statistics Service found that the country's population declined by 3.4 million people, from 146.3 million in 2001 to 142.9 million citizens late last year. Tellingly, the news agency reports, the drop took place despite a significant widening of economic prosperity during the same period - with Russia's economy growing from $200 billion in size in 1999 to $1.7 trillion in 2008 - as a result of surging world oil prices.
The trendline is sobering. “The Russian demographic is such that if you look at official projections, Russia will lose a lot of population and end up with 120mn people in 20 to 30 years,” says Alexander Morozov, the chief economist for Russia at HSBC. And, despite various Kremlin efforts to improve national fertility levels, there is a widespread belief that the downward spiral in Russia's demography is by now unstoppable; “Certain measures related with growth policy can marginally help, but not reverse the trend,” confirms Morozov.
March 30:
Despite calls for its prohibition from human rights activists, Russian authorities have balked at banning the notorious anti-Semitic forgery "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion." According to Russia expert Paul Goble, "Moscow prosecutors have refused" to outlaw "The Protocols," citing a study by the Institute of Psychology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. That analysis concludes that the anti-Semitic screed “has critical historical-educational and political-enlightenment importance," and is only insulting to some (ie., Jews) because "calls to action against other nationalities and religious groups is lacking in the book.”
Human rights groups have termed the refusal "shameful." Goble's Window on Eurasia blog cites Vadim Belotserkovsky of the For Human Rights foundation as saying that the hesitance of prosecutors to ban the anti-Semitic tract "testifies to the success" of fascist tendencies within the Russian Federation - and Russian authorities' aiding and abbetting of those impulses.
A "conscription crisis" may be looming for the Russian armed forces, according to a new analysis from the Zurich-based International Relations and Security Network. "There will be 11.6 million men of conscription age, from 18 to 27 years, in Russia this year, according to the Federal Service of State Statistics' (FSSS) demographic forecast for 2011," the ISN study says. "Deducting those found to be unfit for service, as well as those enjoying the college education exemption and dodging the draft, calculations there would still be approximately 1.7 million men available for conscription in Russia as of 2011" - more than enough to meet federal demand.
And yet, Russia's various military bodies and force ministries are already beginning to show telltale signs of a looming "shortage" in personnel, and this crisis is bound to become more severe in coming years "as the Russian population both shrinks and ages." This trend presages increasingly drastic measures on the part of the Kremlin in the years ahead; "[T]he country’s military planners will either have to recruit older men and cancel exemptions or recruit more professional soldiers in the future," the ISN analysis notes.
April 1:
Russian president Dmitry Medvedev's newest reform initiative could precipitate a major power struggle with his mentor, prime minister Vladimir Putin. Bloomberg reports that Medvedev is poised to issue orders to dismiss several Putin loyalists from state enterprises like Rosneft - a move that is likely to exacerbate latent tensions within the Putin-Medvedev ruling "tandem." Among the major targets, the news agency reports, is Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, a key power broker and Putin ally. Observers are bracing themselves for a bumpy ride; “This risks triggering a war between the elites,” says Alexei Mukhin of the Moscow-based Center for Political Information. “It will mean a real conflict with Putin.”
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