Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1754

November 9:

Russia’s vehement attack on the IAEA’s latest report on Iran took many by surprise, and left some experts questioning whether it marks an end to the “reset” of diplomatic relations with Washington. The Kremlin, reports the New York Times, is more openly critical of the report than even the Chinese government, which simply stated that it is “still studying the reports.” Russian officials, on the other hand, compared the IAEA brief to the flawed intelligence reports produced by the Bush administration in the run-up to the war in Iraq in 2003. This sharp deviation from the recent tendency to stay in synch with U.S. interests has prompted some analysts to question whether the Kremlin is reverting to the tougher foreign policy stances that punctuated the mid-2000s.


November 10:

Despite recent tensions, the Kremlin intends to use an upcoming summit to forge closer ties with Pacific Rim countries. With its European energy customers preoccupied with the debt crisis, Reuters reports, the Kremlin hopes to find new buyers for Russia's oil and natural gas among the Pacific Rim nations, which plan to meet at a U.S.-led APEC summit. Given its new role as leader of APEC starting next year, Russia sees opportunities to increase its ties with the region, and is currently in talks with Japan and South Korea over potential energy projects. Its likely entry into the WTO could promote a growth in overall trade with the region as well.


November 11:

With the Swiss-brokered agreement between Russia and Georgia finally signed and the last barrier standing between Russia and WTO membership finally gone, the U.S. expects accession to be offered before the end of the year. According to RIA-Novosti, the WTO Working Party on Russia’s accession has approved the package that outlines Russia’s terms of entry. It will now send its accession recommendation to the Ministerial Conference, at which officials from the WTO member countries are expected to approve the documents and formally invite Russia to join the bloc. The Kremlin will then have until June 15, 2012 to ratify the accession package.


November 13:

Exit polls from South Ossetia’s controversial elections place the Kremlin-backed Anatoly Bibilov solidly in the lead. The Agence France Presse reports that out of 11 presidential candidates, 48.1 percent of votes went to Bibilov, who seeks to unite with neighboring North Ossetia and become a part of Russia. Georgian officials, who still consider South Ossetia to be a part of Georgia, sharply criticized the elections, calling them “illegitimate polls ‘held in a non-existent state by a regime established through ethnic cleansing.’” Because Bibilov failed to receive a majority of votes, voting is slated to go to a second round.


November 14:

The Kremlin has criticized the Arab League’s recent suspension of Syria, and accused the West of rallying Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s opponents in a bid to drive him out of office, Israel's Ha'aretz newspaper reports. The European Union, in turn, already reached a preliminary agreement to increase sanctions against Syria, and to expand those measures to include more regime elements involved in the violent crackdown on protestors.


November 15:

In what most consider an act of retaliation after a Russian pilot was jailed in Tajikistan, Russia has deported 300 Tajik migrant workers, and jailed nearly 200 more. Over half of Tajikistan’s GDP comes from money sent back by migrant workers in Russia, reports RIA-Novosti, making the move especially damaging. The Kremlin insisted that those deported or detained were violating Russian immigration laws, and has pledged that “illegal” migrants will now be regularly deported. Russian pilot Vladimir Sadovnichy and his Estonian colleague were convicted by a Tajik court of smuggling and border violations earlier this month, and sentenced to 8.5 years in prison.