Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1774

March 22:

The latest poll from state-run pollster VTsIOM suggests that Russians are becoming increasingly apathetic over political protests. According to RIA-Novosti,38 percent of respondents to the VTsIOM survey answered that “the peak of popularity of the opposition demonstrations has passed, [and] the demonstrations will stop soon.” Thirty-nine percent responded that protests will continue, with lower attendance, while only nine percent believed that rally attendance will increase. In the same poll, 32 percent of those polled said they were indifferent to the rallies, while 19 percent answered that they were “angry” over the continuing rallies. A minority of nine percent supported the protestors’ cause.

[Editors’ Note: Given the effect of Russia’s increasingly authoritarian political climate on pollsters and respondents alike, the results of public opinion surveys in Russia should be viewed with some caution.]


March 23:

Tensions over plans for a U.S.-led missile defense shield in Europe continue to run high. Ahead of meetings with President Obama, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that the West is running out of time to secure Russia’s approval for the installations - or else. According to the Wall Street Journal, Medvedev didn’t specify the Kremlin’s plan for retaliation, but in the past has suggested that Russia could boost its early warning capabilities, or even point its missiles at NATO shield installations in Europe and Turkey. NATO previously offered Russia a role in the creation of the shield, but so far has rejected its request to jointly run the project. The U.S. State Department, for its part, continues to insist that Russia has nothing to fear from the shield, and that the anti-missile capabilities being erected in Romania, Poland, Turkey, and Spain will take shape with or without Russian approval.


March 24:

Prominent opposition figure Sergei Udaltsov has met with journalists and supporters in a press conference-style meeting in Moscow’s Pushkin Square to discuss the opposition’s plans for the coming months. RIA-Novostireports that some 250 people gathered for the event, which was intended primarily to discuss the opposition's upcoming “March of Millions,” a rally is scheduled for May 6, the day before Vladimir Putin’s presidential inauguration. It, and all other future rallies, will be discussed with authorities. “We don’t want any massacres and crackdowns,” said Udaltsov. “We want to take to Moscow’s streets peacefully but with great masses of people.”


March 27:

A new report by the World Bank has suggested that high oil prices have masked flaws in Russia’s economy.According to the New York Times, the Russian economy in fact is recovering from the global recession at a slower rate than other developing countries. An aging population, inefficient workers, and low capital investment were all identified as contributing factors by the report, which predicted that Russia’s economic growth will drop from 4.3 percent last year to 3.5 percent this year before rising again in 2013. In comparison, other developing countries grew at an average rate of 5.5 percent last year. Despite slowed growth, however, the Kremlin continues to spend at levels typical of more developed countries like Germany, and drastically increased public spending over the last year, a trend difficult to reverse without public backlash.

March 28:

The Chicago Tribune reports that opposition activists are torn over legislation passed by Russia’s parliament to streamline the registration process for political parties. While some are optimistic that December’s political protests pressured the Kremlin to make real democratic reforms, many remain skeptical. There are concerns among the opposition that the new laws, which include a reduction of required party members from 40,000 to 500, will result in the creation of so many political parties that the electorate will become confused or disillusioned. There are already 85 new parties awaiting registration, covering the entire political spectrum from pro-monarchy parties to socialists, nationalists, and even beer lovers. One activist, meanhile, noted that the new law, which President Medvedev is expected to sign within the week, still allows the Justice Ministry to reject a party’s application for other reasons. “The size of the party membership has never been a problem to us,” said a member of the Parnas party, which has been denied registration several times. “[T]he Kremlin still controls lots of old levers to keep us out of the game.”