Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1824

March 16:

The United States effectively cancelled the elements of a Europe-based missile defense system, a bone of contention between the U.S. and Russia for several years. The White House maintains that “the missile defense decisions...were in no way about Russia,” but rather the result of shuffling resources to counter the renewed nuclear threat from North Korea. Privately, several officials acknowledged that there may be “side benefits that accrue with Russia.” The New York Times reports that the system was cited numerous times by the Kremlin as a “major obstacle” to bilateral cooperation on nuclear arms reductions and other issues. Most recently, Russia refused to reduce its nuclear arsenal without settling the dispute over the missile defense system.

March 17:

Russian naval officials announced plans to form a permanent task force in the Mediterranean Sea. The fleet will involve up to five or six warships, according to Xinhua, including frigates, cruisers, and various support vessels. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu noted that while the navy “possessed the capabilities” to form such a fleet, no timetable has been given for its creation. Russia’s naval presence in the region has steadily increased over the last year, in what analysts believe is an effort to solidify influence amid the ongoing unrest in the Middle East.

March 18:

Russian government and business officials reacted with outrage to a proposed EU bailout for Cyprus, which would levy a hefty charge on those holding more than 100,000 euros in Cypriot banks. The Guardian reports that approximately 70 billion euros-worth of deposits in Cyprus’s banks are held by foreigners, and a large percentage of that total is believed to be Russian. The proposed levy would charge 9.9% on those holding more than 100,000 euros, and 6.75% on those holding less than 100,000, in exchange for EU bailout money for Cyprus’s floundering economy. Russian stock markets plunged to a four-month low after the announcement of the proposed levy, while the country’s oligarchs quickly condemned the proposal. “It’s dangerous if only because it encroaches upon the foundation of Western civilization: the sanctity of private property,” noted metals magnate Mikhail Prokhorov. “We lived through something similar many times in Soviet days . . . everyone knows how that ended.”

March 19:

Russian officials officially closed their probe into the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky while in custody, concluding that there was “no evidence of violence” against the man. According to the LA Times, the official report concluded that there was “no pressure, no physical violence or torture” inflicted in Magnitsky, who died in 2009 of untreated health conditions (although activists and officials disagree on the exact nature of his maladies). Magnitsky’s mother insists that he was not suffering from any health problems at the time of his arrest, and called the committee’s statement an “outright lie.” She noted that she “can get no justice in Russia,” and announced plans to submit the case to the European Court of Human Rights.

March 21:

Russian officials expressed cautious optimism regarding the White House’s cancellation of a European missile defense shield. “There is no unequivocal answer yet to the question of what consequences all this can have for our security," said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, “but dialogue is needed – it is in our interests and we welcome the fact that the American side also, it appears, wants to continue this dialogue.” However, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated in its first official reaction that it will continue to demand binding guarantees that the system would not threaten Russia’s security. Such guarantees have been a sticking point for U.S. officials, and Reuters reports that this is unlikely to change, because of concerns over giving the Kremlin a say in U.S. defense policy. White House officials noted that in place of the proposed system in Europe, fourteen new anti-missile interceptors will be placed in Alaska to counter the threat of a North Korean strike.

March 22:

Hundreds of nongovernmental organizations were searched by Kremlin officials, in an act that rights group Human Rights Watch stated reinforces “the menacing atmosphere for civil society.” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that the organizations, including some of the country’s oldest rights organizations, were searched in connection with new laws requiring some NGOs to register as “foreign agents.” The law allows for regular and unannounced inspections, to ensure that organizations are acting in accordance with the new rules. In one search, officials demanded papers proving that no one present had tuberculosis, while at another, computers were seized. Even a parish of the Roman Catholic Church and a mosque were reportedly searched, on orders from the prosecutor general’s office, to find any violations of the country’s vaguely worded “extremism” law. A search of this magnitude is unprecedented in modern Russian history.