Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1828

April 13:

The Kremlin wasted no time in retaliating after the United States released the list of 18 Russian officials placed under a visa ban. Moscow released its own list, reports CNN, also with 18 names, including an FBI agent, a DEA agent, and officials in a New York district court. Many of those named were connected either with the Guantanamo Bay detention camp or with the “removal to other countries of Russian citizens and in threats to their lives and health,” likely referring to the extradition of Viktor Bout, the accused arms seller. “This war of lists was not our decision,” insisted officials in Russia’s Interior Ministry, “but we do not have to ignore such open blackmail.”

April 15:

Despite months of rising tensions between Moscow and Washington, analysts believe bilateral relations took a tentative step forward following an official visit to Russia by U.S. National Security Advisor Tom Donilon. According to the Christian Science Monitor, Donilon delivered a letter from U.S. President Barack Obama, which offered numerous proposals regarding nuclear arms reduction, missile defense, and bilateral trade. After examining the proposals, President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yury Ushakov called it “constructive.” “Some ideas have already been talked about,” noted Ushakov, “but there are some new elements which our country will study in the most attentive way and give a corresponding response.” “The message is written in a very constructive tone and contains a range of suggestions for further deepening of our bilateral dialogue and cooperation,” he added.

April 16:

Kostroma Center for the Defense of Public Initiatives, a nongovernmental organization based outside of Moscow, faces a $16,000 fine for engaging in “political activities.” According to the New York Times, those “activities” refer to a February roundtable the organization participated in called “Resetting the Reset: Where Are Russian-American Relations Heading?” which included the U.S. Embassy’s deputy political counselor, Howard Solomon. As a result, the Kremlin maintains that the group must register as a “foreign agent,” as required under recent legislation. Kostroma’s head, Nikolai Sorokin, insists that the organization isn’t political, and that it was only after cooperating with the American embassy that the state levied its fine.

April 17:

Alexei Navalny, one of Russia’s most prominent opposition leaders, faces up to ten years in prison if convicted in the state’s latest case against him. The trial began this week, reports the Wall Street Journal, with the state accusing Navalny of organizing a criminal group in 2009 to steal 16 million rubles ($509,000) of timber from a state company. The Investigative Committee additionally charged Navalny and his brother with laundering money from a mail-transport company, and are investigating him for allegedly defrauding a now-defunct political party in an advertising deal. Navalny was also accused of registering illegally as an attorney. Even if given a suspended sentence, a conviction will bar Navalny from political office, but the activist recently reiterated his vow to run for president in the country’s 2017 elections. The case against Navalny, which he has called a fabrication and a political witch hunt, is one of many such cases against the country’s opposition activists, in response to increased protests. Although Navalny says he expects a conviction, analysts note that if the Kremlin jails such a prominent figure, it runs the risk of creating a martyr for the opposition movement.

April 18:

As Russia’s economy continues to post weak growth numbers with each successive quarter, Vladimir Putin’s popularity continues to fall. The country’s economic ministry recently cut the country’s economic growth forecast for this year from 3.6 to 2.4 percent, reports CNBC, and analysts note that prolonged economic struggles could harm Putin’s reelection efforts. “Around 52 percent of Russians do not want him to run for presidency again,” noted one analyst, calling the trend “astonishing.” Many blame Putin’s fiscal plan for the continuing economic decline, because it bases spending plans on the long-term average oil price, which has recently been in a slump.

April 19:

The Left Front opposition party was suspended from political activity for three months, on order from state prosecutors. The ban will prevent the group from holding meetings or protests, or from using its symbols or bank accounts until mid-July, reports the New York Times. Activists maintain that the ban was a political move, and an attempt to keep the party, which played a prominent role in the street protests of last year, from participating in the mass opposition demonstration planned for this spring. Sergei Udaltsov, the party’s leader, is currently under house arrest on charges of organizing “mass disorder.”