Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1831

May 5:

A year after opposition protests swelled to sizes not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union, only a small collection of protesters gathered to continue their efforts against the Kremlin. The movement has lost the majority of its momentum, reports the Washington Post, and many of its members are jailed or facing trial. As a result of recent legislation, participation in an unauthorized protest now carries a fine of up to $9,000. Even worse, Alexei Navalny, widely recognized as the opposition’s greatest hope in the next presidential election, currently faces embezzlement charges which could bar him permanently from public office. Analysts say that the movement struggles because it failed to translate the street-level energy created by the protests into “actual political change.” “People got a little disappointed when they saw after these big events that nothing was happening,” noted a protest organizer. “They came out, they protested, and no one listened to them. So now, they do not know what to do.”

May 7:

Russian and American officials announced plans to host an international conference in an effort to end the ongoing Syrian civil war. The announcement was made amid U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s first visit to Moscow, where the Guardian reports he met with both Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and President Putin. Both sides cited the Geneva communique, the international agreement from last year in which international leaders called for the creation of a transitional government, as a basis for the conference. The two officials did not, however, discuss the fate of Bashar al-Assad, which has been the major hurdle to previous agreements. The summit is tentatively scheduled for as early as the end of May.

May 8:

President Putin called for greater efforts in the south to fight the growing threat of extremist violence in Afghanistan. “There is every reason to believe that in the near future we may face a worsening of the situation,” Putin warned his security council, adding that U.S. and NATO forces have “not yet achieved a breakthrough in the fight against terrorist and radical groups,” in Afghanistan. Reuters reports that the Kremlin plans to combat the threat through increased migration controls at its southern border, and will focus on slowing the drug trade in the region. Putin further called for the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a group of six ex-Soviet republics (including three in Central Asia), to increase its efforts to better arm and equip a rapid-reaction force in the area.

Deputy Prime Minister Vladislav Surkov, known as the “grey cardinal” and credited with creating Putin’s system of “sovereign democracy” was ousted as a part of what many believe was a power struggle between the Kremlin and its government. Kremlin officials maintain that Surkov left of his own volition, after receiving harsh criticism from the President days earlier for failing to carry out presidential orders and decrees. Even if true, Reuters reports, the move is a serious blow for Dmitry Medvedev, who is under growing pressure for failing to halt the recent economic slide. Surkov was once Putin’s top political advisor, and considered the “Kremlin’s puppet master.” Surkov left Putin's administration at the Kremlin in December 2011 amid the election protests, after making the mistake of calling the protestors “the best part of society.” He joined Medvedev's cabinet shortly after. Opposition activists maintain that the announcement was politically motivated. “Of course it’s a strike against Medvedev,” insisted one analyst. “It turns out he was simply devoured. It will take some time and the prime minister will also be devoured.” “Only one person could have decided this,” noted another political source. “Putin.”

May 9:

The continued stagnation of the Russian economy prompted President Putin to gather economic advisors, government officials, and other experts at an emergency meeting to discuss potential remedies. What they offered, according to Bloomberg, was a policy overhaul. They noted that the Kremlin must make it a priority to shift the economy away from its reliance on oil and natural gas sales. Recommendations ranged from policies to increase the efficiency of the workforce, to suggestions of shifting funding from state-controlled companies and law enforcement to sectors such as health care and education. One expert noted that currently in Russia there are 10.5 military personnel for every 1,000 Russians, which is a rate nearly twice that found in the United States. Moreover, companies majority-owned by the Russian government currently account for half the national economy, a sharp increase from 2006, when the same companies contributed an estimated 38 percent. “Substantial state support distorts market conditions and leads to lower interest on the part of private investors to particular sectors in the economy,” one expert argued, pushing for further privatization of the economy. President Putin wants Russia’s economy to rank among the world’s five largest, Bloomberg reports, and ordered Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to create a plan to revive growth within the next week. Russia’s economy ranked ninth in the International Monetary Fund’s 2011 report.

May 10:

U.S. intelligence officials believe the Kremlin withheld a “crucial piece of information” from the U.S. before the Boston bombings, suggesting that the lingering distrust between the two countries prevented officials from potentially averting the Boston Marathon bombings. The Wall Street Journal reports that nearly a week after the bombings, American officials learned of a series of text messages uncovered by Russian intelligence, exchanged by the bomber’s mother and a Russian relative, suggesting that the man, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, sought to join a militant group in the Caucasus region. Although the Kremlin maintains that security services gathered “little” information on Tsarnaev, officials in Dagestan say they tracked him throughout a six-month trip there in 2012. It isn’t clear whether knowing of the text messages would have substantially changed the events of last month, but analysts note that officials from both sides recognize a need for closer cooperation. The directors of the FBI and their Russian counterpart, the FSB, have been in regular communication since the bombings, while the FBI director, Robert Mueller, joined Secretary of State Kerry on his trip to Moscow.