Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1838

June 21:

Despite recent reports of Russia’s resurging population levels, a new study submitted to the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Labor suggests that the country has only five years before it falls into a “demographic catastrophe.” In the next ten years, the reports predicts the number of women of reproductive age (20-29 years), the group that currently accounts for two-thirds of births, will fall by nearly fifty percent. The report goes on to suggest that by 2020, the working-age population as a whole will decrease by nearly eight million people, and by 2050, by over twenty-five million. Russia Free Press reports that the sharp drop in the working population will mean a growing strain on the economy, as it works to support a burgeoning number of pensioners. The report blames a number of factors for the encroaching disaster, including mixed messages from the Kremlin, and suggests that to avoid the problem, programs must be adopted to encourage and support larger families.

Golos became the first official casualty of the controversial law requiring NGOs to register as “foreign agents.” The beleaguered voting monitor’s deputy executive director, Grigoriy Melkonyants, announced that the organization will be liquidated, under the weight of accumulating fines for failing to register under the new restrictions. Although Golos’ foreign funding ended last year, a Moscow court last week upheld a fine on the organization’s head of 100,000 rubles (about $3,000) for failing to register, while another court refused to overturn a fine of 300,000 rubles (around $10 thousand) on the organization for the same offense. According to RIA-Novosti, Kremlin officials maintain that the law’s only intent was to “better inform Russian citizens about possible motives and backgrounds of those who took part in the political process,” but critics note that Golos, which ran afoul of the Kremlin during the last congressional and presidential elections, was among the first organizations subjected to “random” inspections by federal officials.

June 23:

The arrival of “whistleblower” Edward Snowden in Moscow has placed a new strain on relations with Washington. The New York Times reports that Snowden’s successful entry into the country, despite the efforts of American intelligence agencies to revoke his passport, has frustrated Washington, and done nothing for already-tenuous bilateral relations. Noting that the United States has returned “numerous high level criminals back to Russia” at the Kremlin’s request, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council added that “we expect the Russian government to look at all options available to expel Mr. Snowden back to the U.S. to face justice for the crimes with which he is charged.” While one analyst noted that Russia has become something of a “haven, virtually, intellectually, and physically for those who have an ax to grind with the West,” others point out that Russian officials appear to be downplaying Snowden’s presence in the country. “We have nothing to do with this story,” insisted Dmitri Peskov, a spokesman for President Vladimir Putin. “We’re not the proper people to address this question to.”

June 24:

Georgia’s new leadership has surprised its international audience, finding a new balance between friendlier relations with Russia and continued cooperation with the west. The BBC notes that five years after the brief but destructive war between Russia and Georgia, Tbilisi has persuaded the Kremlin to abandon its ban on sales of Georgian wine and mineral water, and there have been overtures made toward easing visa restrictions for Georgians travelling to Russia. At the same time, however, Russian troops continue to occupy nearly twenty percent of Georgia’s territory, in order to enforce the independence of South Ossetia, a region that broke away from the rest of the country in the 1990s. Georgia and most of the west still consider the territory under Tbilisi’s control, but for the time being at least, the two sides appear to have reached a shaky truce on the subject.

June 26:

Even as Moscow increases its naval presence in the Mediterranean, it decreases its presence in Syria. Agence France-Presse reports that all Russian military personnel have now been evacuated from Syria, leaving the strategic naval center in Tartus unstaffed amid the continuing Syrian civil conflict. Although Kremlin officials tried to downplay the move, insisting that Russia “never had a base in the first place,” and calling Tartus merely a “technical facility for maintaining ships sailing in the Mediterranean,” analysts note that the port was the only such strategic base outside of the former Soviet Union. The facility is now staffed only by the technical experts hired by the Syrian government to train its military personnel in Russian-made weaponry.

June 27:

The Kremlin announced that it intends to scale back its privatization plans, citing the lagging economy. Rather than meeting last year’s target of $34 billion by the end of 2014, the Wall Street Journal reports that officials only expect to raise $5.5 billion through the selloff. The delay means the state will remain in control of several of the country’s biggest companies, including the oil company Rosneft and VTB, one of Russia’s largest banks. While many state officials and the heads of state-run companies are satisfied with the announcement, critics had hoped the selloff would help move the Russian economy away from state capitalism. “Now we have a new economic slowdown which is their reason for not selling,” noted Ivan Tchakarov, Renaissance Capital’s chief economist, “but it may be a very drawn-out recovery process and I think they are missing a lot by not being more aggressive.” The Kremlin still reportedly plans to sell the company shares in question, but not until “at least 2016.”