Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1847

August 25:

Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned the United States against “repeating past mistakes,” in dealing with the reports of chemical weapon use in Syria. Reuters reports that the ministry released a statement comparing the accusations to the 2003 reports of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, adding that “we once again decisively urge the United States not to repeat the mistakes of the past and not to allow actions that go against international law.” The statement urged U.S. leaders to avoid making a “tragic mistake,” before the U.N. can conduct its investigation this week. The Ministry concluded that “any unilateral military action bypassing the United Nations will...lead to further escalation and will affect the already explosive situation in the Middle East in the most devastating way.”

August 26:

Kremlin officials were forced to cut the country’s growth forecast for the second time this year. The Economy Ministry now projects growth to be only 1.8% this year, a marked decrease from the 2.4% projection made in April. The Wall Street Journal reports that estimates for 2014 were likewise lowered, to between 2.8% and 3.2%. The move all but eliminates President Vladimir Putin’s goal of 5% annual growth in the near future. Experts continue to blame waning foreign investments and lowered demand for oil exports for the slump. Government officials have already proposed a series of stimulus measures, as the pressure builds to find more effective economic reforms.

August 28:

As Moscow continues its attempts to tighten the screws on Kiev, Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Mykola Azarov, has told the Kremlin that it must accept the country’s new trade relationship with the EU as a “reality.” The comment came as some of Ukraine’s largest companies remained caught in a trade war with Russia. Euronews reports that the Kremlin has most recently blocked imports of chocolate from Ukraine’s largest industrial chocolate maker, Roshen, on claims that the quality is “not up to scratch.” Several experts suggest the Kremlin’s efforts are targeted at specific companies. “The attack is on the leaders of Ukrainian big business,” argued Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst at the PENTA center, “people who play an important role in the Ukrainian economy, because they are the main lobbyists for European integration of Ukraine.”

August 29:

Continuing Moscow’s trend of rocky relations in Eastern Europe, tensions between Russia and Belarus rose as the Kremlin threatened to cut oil supplies to the energy-poor country for months. Relations between the two countries have been unstable for years, Reuters reports, and the latest problem arose when Vladislav Baumgertner, the Russian chief executive of potash company Uralkali, was arrested in Minsk. Soon after, the Kremlin ordered its oil companies to cut supplies to Belarus by nearly 25 percent. Belarus was quick to fire back, as state officials suggested the possibility of also prosecuting billionaire Sleiman Kerimov, Uralkali’s top shareholder. Kerimov is known to have close ties to Russian President Putin.

As the United States and its western allies contemplate strikes against Syria, the Kremlin announced plans to send an anti-submarine ship and a missile cruiser to the Mediterranean. Agence France-Presse noted that while one naval official insisted that the move is part of a “planned rotation,” a source in the Russian General Staff suggested instead that “the well-known situation shaping up in the eastern Mediterranean called for certain corrections to the make-up of the naval forces.” A rocket cruiser of the Pacific Fleet is also expected to join the fleet in the Mediterranean by this autumn.

August 30:

Despite the downturn of U.S.-Russian relations over the last year, joint counterterrorism training exercises took place as scheduled this week. Russian, American, and Canadian pilots took part, according to the Associated Press, in an exercise to make sure that Russia and NORAD forces could “find, track and escort a hijacked aircraft over international borders.” “All these other factors really don’t play in this,” said a member of the Canadian Air Force. “This is a mission that we have to accomplish, so it really is beyond those types of frictions. We cooperate because we have to.” This year marks the fifth such exercise since 2003.