Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1866

December 25:

Russia’s bailout of Ukraine is proceeding quickly. The Kremlin has already rendered some $3 billion to the government of Viktor Yanukovych following an early December deal hammered out between Yanukovych and Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Reuters, Ukrainian officials expect the remaining $13 billion of Russia’s $15 billion economic package to be provided in full in coming weeks. Ukrainian officials see the aid, rendered by Moscow as a quid pro quo of sorts for the Yanukovych government’s late November decision to forego an economic association agreement with the EU in favor of tighter trade and political ties with Russia, as nothing less than an economic lifeline for their country’s sagging economy. "The Russian loan is a critical factor in stabilizing our state finances and economy," Ukrainian Prime Minister Mikola Azarov has maintained.

December 29:

CNN reports that a suspected female suicide bomber has blown herself up in the main train station of the city of Volgograd. The bombing, the second to hit the southern Russian city in two months, has killed at least 16 people. No group has yet come forward to claim responsibility for the attack.

December 30:

Less than a day after a suicide bombing at Volgograd’s train station, a similar attack has targeted a trolleybus in the same city, killing an estimated fourteen people, CBS News and the Associated Press report. Like the attack on December 29th, no claim of responsibility has been forthcoming. However, based upon similarities in the attacks and the type of explosives used, Russian authorities believe both to be the work of the same extremist group. In response, Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered the country’s counterterrorism committee "to strengthen security Russia-wide and specifically in the Volgograd region." Nevertheless, the Volgograd bombings have heightened international fears surrounding the upcoming Olympic Winter Games in nearby Sochi, which has been identified as a priority target by Russian Islamists.

The terror attacks in Volgograd were likely orchestrated by the same local jamaat, or Islamic fighting group, active in the region, a leading Russian terrorism expert has said. In an interview with the regional news portal Natsionalny Aksent, Rais Suleimanov of the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies noted that the Southern Federal District, where Volgograd is located, is home to a known violent “Wahhabi” Islamist group – which more than likely perpetrated the attacks as a matter of convenience. That is because, Suleimanov notes, the desired target for regional Islamists is Sochi, but the Krasnodar Region (where Sochi is located) currently boasts a “huge security presence” – making nearby Volgograd, a major rail hub located some 400 miles away, a convenient and high-profile substitute.

January 1:

Reuters reports that Russian authorities believe at least one of the bombers in the recent Volgograd attacks was an ethnic-Russian convert to Islam – highlighting a tactic increasingly popular with Islamic radicals as a way of skirting security measures employed by the country’s security services. A number of recent terror attacks in Russia – including an earlier October bombing of a bus in Volgograd – included an ethnic Russian as one of the conspirators and/or perpetrators. "This is a new strategy that we have been seeing more often lately,” says Russian security expert Andrei Soldatov. “It's a massive problem for law enforcement agencies."