Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1885

March 29:

In the latest sign of its deepening integration into the Russian Federation, Crimea has changed time zones. NBC News reports that the peninsula has officially set its clocks ahead two hours to bring the region - now a Russian federal subject - in line with Moscow time.

In an effort to diffuse mounting worries in the West, the Russian government is signaling that it has no plans to capitalize on its annexation of Crimea by invading eastern Ukraine. "We have absolutely no intention of - or interest in - crossing Ukraine's borders," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in televised comments. Officials in the U.S. and NATO, however, are skeptical. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh-Rasmussen has said that he sees "the potential for further interventions" on the part of Russia in the wake of Crimea. "I am worried that we are not dealing with rational thinking as much as with emotions, the yearning to rebuild Russia's old sphere of influence in its immediate neighbourhood," Rasmussen told reporters in comments carried by Reuters.

March 30:

Russia has floated a proposal to federalize Ukraine, the Associated Press reports. During consultations with Secretary of State John Kerry in Paris, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted that Ukraine cannot function as a "unified state." Instead, Lavrov proposed, the country should be transformed into a "loose federation of regions that choose their own economic model, language and religion."

As the relationship between Russia and Europe deteriorates over Ukraine, Russia’s state-owned natural gas giant is looking to expand its market share in North Africa and the Middle East. Writing for Al-Monitor, Russian Academy of Sciences expert Tatiana Mitrova notes that Gazprom has already met with the Kuwaiti ambassador to the Russian Federation to discuss expanded bilateral cooperation, and may next be looking towards Jordan and Egypt to expand sales of natural gas. The moves, according to Mitrova, reflect Moscow's efforts to position itself to take advantage of mounting regional energy demand in coming years.

March 31:

Ukraine is bracing for an influx of Crimean refugees in the aftermath of Russia's annexation of the peninsula. FOX News reports that thousands of refugees have already fled Crimea for Ukraine, the majority of them ethnic Tatars. However, large numbers of other Crimean residents, including Ukrainian soldiers and their families, are also anticipated to seek asylum. Refugee shelters have already been organized across Ukraine, and the Ukrainian government “will accommodate each and every Ukrainian citizen who does not desire to remain in Crimea and Sevastopol,” the country's Social Policy Minister, Lyudmila Denisova, has announced.

April 1:

The Russian Orthodox Church could end up being adversely affected by the Kremlin's recent annexation of Crimea. Al-Jazeera reports that the Moscow Patriarch, Kirill, has lost standing among many Ukrainians in recent weeks. A number of Crimean clergy from churches aligned with the Kiev Patriarchate have fled to Ukraine, citing concerns for their safety in what has become a Russia-controlled territory.

Ukraine’s parliament has approved a string of joint military exercises with NATO countries as unease grows over the recent buildup of Russian forces near Crimea. Kyiv's approval will allow Ukraine to conduct two sets of military exercises with the U.S., and would put US troops in direct proximity to Russian forces, reports the Agence France Presse.